The Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections will take place no later than mid-June, but possibly earlier. Last but not least, the economic difficulties with high inflation, which fell to around 64 percent in December, and a devalued Turkish currency, the lira, have caused support for the governing alliance, the People’s Alliance, made up of the AKP and the ultra-nationalist MHP, to decline.
With a view to the voters, Erdogan responded with financial gifts: 30 percent wage increase in the public sector, multiple increases in the minimum wage and the abolition of the minimum age for retirement. The middle class is to be made easier to buy a home with low-interest loans. At the same time, Erdogan is putting pressure on the central bank not to raise interest rates to the extent that it would actually be necessary to combat the enormous inflation from an economic point of view.
“Retreat from human rights and rule of law”
Erdogan is less lenient with potential opponents and critics. The US-based human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) has criticized expanded censorship powers, bogus criminal proceedings and prison sentences. Thousands of political opponents of the government are in prison. “The Erdogan government has accelerated its retreat from human rights and the rule of law by introducing new online censorship and disinformation laws to silence the media and stifle peaceful dissent,” said Hugh Williamson, HRW director for Europe and Central Asia .
It was not until the fall that the government tightened the media law. False information can be punished with up to three years in prison, but what this includes is not defined in detail. The Turkish journalists’ union spoke of a destruction of the “last remnant of freedom of expression”. Restrictions are feared, particularly on the Internet. The newspapers and television stations are already largely pro-government.
sword of Damocles political ban
The opposition is also feeling the sharp headwind. It is still unclear which opposition candidates will step into the ring against Erdogan. Promising candidates are already being harassed. The incumbent Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, was brought into play again and again for the six-party alliance with the largest opposition party, the CHP. In the 2019 local elections, he had already outdone an AKP candidate – also with the help of Kurdish votes – and gave the ruling party a sensitive defeat.
However, a constant sword of Damocles hovers over Imamoglu, to be deposed and political ban imposed. At the end of last year, a court handed down a two-year prison sentence and banned him from holding an elected office for allegations of insulting officials in the 2019 Istanbul local elections. National and international protests were widespread, and the appeal verdict is still pending. A few days ago it was also announced that Imamoglu could face a trial for alleged fraud. As an alternative, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu could run as a candidate for this opposition alliance.
HDP barred from party funding
The pro-Kurdish HDP sees itself cornered as a whole party. The second largest opposition party is in its own electoral alliance with four other parties. The HDP could be the kingmaker for the next government. As early as 2019, in Istanbul, for example, she gave up her own candidate and advised Imamoglu to vote. For the upcoming election, however, the party wants to nominate its own candidate, should it still be possible to run.
Only a few days ago, the public prosecutor’s office asked the Turkish constitutional court to ban the party because of “terrorism”. The left-wing party is accused of having close ties to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The HDP rejects this. At least two-thirds of the 15 members of the Constitutional Court would have to vote in favor of the ban. The HDP expects a decision in the coming months before the elections.
The constitutional court has already ruled that the HDP is excluded from state party funding for the time being. This court decision shows that Erdogan’s government is abusing the courts to “discriminate against, eliminate and punish” the political opposition. Dozens of HDP politicians have been in prison for years.
Politically influenced judiciary
The Turkish judiciary is considered partisan. The EU Commission also criticized the fact that the judiciary is under government control in many areas. Erdogan denies that. There are numerous examples of a politically active judiciary – including outside of the parties. For example, the human rights activist Osman Kavala was sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of attempting to overthrow the Turkish government during the Gezi protests in 2013 and on allegations of espionage. The verdict was only recently confirmed. International protests against Kavala’s detention went unheeded in Turkey.
Last week, the President of the Turkish Medical Association, Sebnem Korur, was sentenced to two years and eight months in prison. She had been in custody for several months after being accused of “terrorist propaganda”. She had called for an investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Turkish army against Kurdish fighters. However, she was released after the verdict and placed under judicial supervision, as prison sentences under four years are rarely carried out in Turkey. The maximum penalty in her case would have been seven and a half years in prison. The verdict is therefore considered a setback for the public prosecutor.
Airstrikes in retaliation
In terms of foreign policy, Erdogan wants to demonstrate strength. In the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, for example, he positioned Turkey as a mediator. He continues to block Sweden’s entry into NATO. The blockade is argued with alleged Swedish support for the banned PKK.
The Turkish government also blamed Kurdish rebels for a bomb attack in Istanbul in November that killed six. Erdogan justified the following air raids against Kurdish-populated areas in northern Iraq and Syria with a retaliatory strike. But there are doubts about the official account of who is actually behind the attack. Any responsibility for this was rejected by the Kurdish side. The airstrikes drew international criticism. NGOs reported that civilian targets were also hit in the attacks, and attacks on oil and gas facilities led to fuel shortages.
Reaching out to Syria’s rulers
In Syria, Erdogan is now likely to make a U-turn. So far, Turkey has been on the side of the Syrian opposition, which primarily controls north-western Syria. Diplomatic relations with Syria’s ruler Bashar al-Assad were severed. But now there is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. That would – also internationally – reshuffle the cards in the Syrian conflict.
The background to this possible change of course could be of a domestic nature and the change may have taken place with a view to the elections. Turkey took in around 3.7 million Syrians. The mood in the country towards the refugees deteriorated visibly, as they also pose additional challenges for the Turkish economy. Erdogan is looking for ways for Syrian refugees to leave Turkey.
In addition, he wants to push back the US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia YPG from the Syrian-Turkish border, Middle East expert Gudrun Harrer analyzed for the “Standard”. Syrian refugees could be brought to a buffer zone behind the border, according to Ankara’s plan. According to the analysis, however, a consensus with Russia is also necessary for this. It also remains unclear whether Assad is part of this move.
