Likeable guy, good song – and yet he only came in last place: The pop singer and rapper Malik Harris only got six points for Germany at the Eurovision Song Contest 2022 and you can feel sorry for that. Harris can comfort himself with a statistic: Since Lena won the ESC for Germany in 2010, no German contribution has even made it into the top 3.
The lousy German ESC balance sheet
The sad truth is instead: three last and three penultimate places, four times midfield and at least 4th place for Michael Schulte in 2018. The bar is low when the Hamburg metal band Lord of the Lost competes in the ESC final on Saturday evening, Germany with one representing the rock anthem called “Blood & Glitter” and presumably setting off a lot of fireworks on stage.
If the betting providers have their way, the colorfully costumed rock band will at least end the ESC final with a place in the upper midfield. It currently looks like 15th placehas the page “Eurovisionworld.com“ calculated after evaluation of 17 bookmakers. Another complete defeat, as satirist Jan Böhmermann sings about in his new song “Allemage Zero Points”, which was released especially for the ESC, is not to be expected.
Less than one percent chance of winning the ESC 2023
However, Lord of the Lost should not plan a victory celebration either, the chance of victory calculated by “Eurovisionworld.com” is less than one percent.
How reliable are the forecasts?
One could say that the Eurovision Song Contest is a live event and therefore by definition unpredictable. The evening could have its own dynamic, even its own magic. Who knows, maybe Lord of the Lost will have the performance of their lives in Liverpool, maybe they will strike a chord with the audience and the expert jury, as they can only do on this Saturday night at this time, never before and never again, so that the vote will be different fails than expected by the betting shops.
The statistics speak against Lord of the Lost
But: Lord of the Lost don’t have the stats on their side, that’s for sure. In the past three years, the artists who were also expected to be winners by the betting shops have won (Ukraine, Italy, the Netherlands). Germany’s performance since 2015, on the other hand, has been forecast with discouraging accuracy:
- Bullseye in 2019 (Penultimate), 2016 (Last) and 2015 (Last)
- Just off 2021 (forecast: 24, actually: 25) and 2018 (forecast: 3, actually: 4)
- Slightly larger deviations in 2017 and 2022, where 18th place was forecast and 25th place
Who will win the ESC 2023?
The betting shops expect that the entry from Sweden will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023, the song “Tattoo” by Loreen. The chance of winning is 49 percent.
Loreen is representing Sweden for the second time. In 2012 she won the ESC with the song “Euphoria”. It is not uncommon for artists to compete again.
For Germany, for example, Lena will try again next year after her victory in 2010 – and only ended up in 10th place. Another victory is rare, so far the Irish singer John Logan is the only one who has won more than once. If the betting shops are right, Loreen will achieve a rare double victory at ESC 2023.
