The RN, whose list would be led by its president Jordan Bardella, would achieve 26% of the vote against 26% also for a Nupes list. In the event of separate lists of left-wing parties, the RN would be at 25%, very clearly in the lead.
The National Rally (RN) and a list of the Nupes, if the left-wing parties managed to agree, would come out on top neck and neck in the next European elections to be held in a year’s time, according to an IFOP Fiducial* poll published on Saturday by the JDD and Sud Radio.
The RN, whose list would be led by its president Jordan Bardella, would achieve 26% of the vote against 26% also for a Nupes list. In the event of separate lists of left-wing parties, the RN would be at 25%, very clearly in the lead.
A list of the parties of the presidential majority (Renaissance, Modem, Horizons) which would be led by Stéphane Séjourné would resist a possible sanction vote rather well and would obtain 19% if the left was disunited and 22% in the event of the presence of a Nupes list .
Ifop Fiducial has tested the hypothesis of a Nupes list which would be led by the ecologist David Cormand and the rebellious Manon Aubry.
Next would come a Les Républicains list with 11% in the case of a Nupes list and 8% in the case of separate lists on the left. The hypothesis tested is that of a list led by François-Xavier Bellamy and Michel Barnier.
Opposition from environmentalists
Reconquest!, the far-right party of Eric Zemmour is credited with 6% in both cases.
If the Nupes parties presented themselves separately, the Socialist Party (with Raphaël Glucksmann at the top of the list), La France insoumise (with Manon Aubry) and Europe Ecologie les Verts (with David Cormand) each collected 10% of the voting intentions, while the PCF (with Fabien Roussel) gets 5%.
LFI is currently pushing its partners to put together a united list for these elections, which will take place in a year’s time, on a date that has not yet been established. But environmentalists oppose it.
In the last presidential election, the leader of the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon had arrived very clearly ahead of all the other left-wing candidates, with 22%, at the foot of the second round.
“When the ripple effect of Mélenchon is not there, the LFI brand falls to a low level”, notes in the JDD Frédéric Dabi, the director general of Ifop.
*The survey was conducted on May 10 and 11 on a representative sample of 1,310 people, the margin of error is between 1.1 and 2.5 points.
