PARIS.- He Extreme weather What the planet is currently experiencing is within the range of experts’ predictions, says the French climatologist Robert Vautardwho directs the Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace and co-chairs the IPCC Working Group 1commissioned by the UN to study the climate.
Despite this, Vautard points out that there are still unknowns to be resolved. As a specialist in the rapid attribution of meteorological events and their possible connection to climate change, he highlights that “there are loose ends.”
As to whether the climate warming of the past 12 months follows climate prediction models or whether we have entered uncharted territory, Vautard comments: “If we are talking about climate models, we are right in the middle, without a doubt. We “We are within the range projected by climate predictions, which in fact were anticipated some time ago. The year 2023 is not far from these margins.”
However, Vautard notes that there are questions about the magnitude of the change between 2022 and 2023. “But if you look closely, we have experienced similar changes in the 1970s, so this is not something new,” he adds.
The expert mentions that certain anomalies persist, such as one in the tropical Atlantic, that have not been fully understood and that continue in 2024. He also mentions unknowns about sea ice in Antarctica and the Indian Ocean.
Regarding the causes of these anomalies, Vautard explains that we must always consider the possibility of natural fluctuations that overlap with climate change. “It’s like the weather: there’s random behavior from year to year or even decade to decade,” he says.
On the speed of attribution studies linking extreme events to climate change, Vautard comments that these methods are supported by a solid foundation of previous research. “When a study is published on a heat wave, for example, we know that we have many others behind it, so we are sure of what we say,” he says.
Vautard highlights the importance of attribution both for the scientific community and for informing the public and decision makers. Furthermore, he emphasizes that each study contributes to the advancement of knowledge about climate models and observations, which is essential to better understand the challenges we face in relation to climate change.
Source: With information from AFP
