Former Bundeswehr and NATO general Hans-Lothar Domröse, for example, is assuming that the fighting will come to an end: Both Ukraine and Russia would launch another offensive in the next few months to try to achieve their military goals after all . But he expects a standstill in early summer. Then Russia and Ukraine would realize that it made no sense to continue fighting if it was no longer possible to gain ground, says the former general.
“That would be the moment for ceasefire negotiations.” But that doesn’t mean peace by a long shot. Armistice means stopping shooting and entering into negotiations. Domröse said that the only solution left was a negotiated solution that was acceptable to both sides – “even if Putin would actually like to have all of Ukraine and Zelenskyy would like to liberate all of Ukraine again”.
“You need an intermediary”
As a possible solution, the ex-general called “that Zelenskyj waives the demand to immediately reintegrate areas like Crimea into Ukraine – a transition could be agreed,” just as there is a transition period of 50 years for the transition from Hong Kong to China .
But “the negotiations are likely to take a long time, you need a mediator: maybe UN Secretary-General (Antonio) Guterres, the Turkish President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan or the Indian Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi – although nobody really imposes themselves”.
Negotiations possible in summer
The Russia and security expert Andras Racz from the German Council on Foreign Relations also predicts that there could be negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the summer: “I’m pretty sure that we will have some kind of ceasefire by the end of the year: with hopefully none at all Fight more, but certainly much less fights.”
It is unlikely that Russia would want to wage an intensive war before or during the upcoming presidential election in 2024. Racz expects that Russia will therefore want to reduce the intensity of the fighting over the course of the year. “Also because the supply problems of the Russian army are likely to increase in the summer.”
Racz recalled that a ceasefire had already been agreed several times under the Minsk agreements. At that time, the intensity of the fighting decreased, but they did not end. “It was a limited war in which both sides had diplomatic relations, there was trade and energy supplies – and yet the fighting continued,” said the security expert. In a year it will be a limited war again.
Who can set conditions?
The German European politician David McAllister (CDU) emphasized that the Kremlin cannot and must not impose a dictated peace on Ukraine, i.e. a peace treaty whose conditions are set unilaterally by Russia. “The Ukrainian government alone decides whether and when the conditions for ceasefire negotiations are met,” said the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament.
From Moscow’s point of view, talks with Ukraine would only make sense if Kyiv accepted all Russian conditions. Zelenskyy does not want to negotiate as long as the Russian war of aggression ends in subjugating and destroying Ukraine.
NATO: End of war at negotiating table, but not soon
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said that it was up to Kyiv to decide on what conditions to sit down at the negotiating table. It is likely that this war will also end at the negotiating table, but the strength of Ukraine on the battlefield is decisive for the outcome of such talks, said Stoltenberg, who consequently called for further arms deliveries to Ukraine.
NATO must be prepared to support Ukraine in the long term, Stoltenberg said. There have been no signs from Russia that it has given up on its overriding goal of taking over Ukraine. “The Ukrainian armed forces had the upper hand for several months. But we also know that Russia has mobilized many new forces, many of whom are now being trained.” He added: “This indicates that they are ready to continue the war and may try to launch a new offensive.”
Despite strong attacks: “Ukraine does not give up hope”
There were also rocket and drone attacks on Ukraine on New Year’s Eve and on New Year’s Day – so on Monday night there was again an air alert in many parts of Ukraine.
Russian military bloggers reported that in addition to Kyiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions were affected. The massive attacks with combat drones began on Thursday. Russia has also repeatedly reported drone attacks from the Ukrainian side.
Despite the attacks, the hope for peace and a new beginning and reconstruction is unbroken, said the President of the Ukrainian Caritas-Spes, Auxiliary Bishop Olexandr Jaslowezkyj. But political peace needs time, more prayers and more help from Europe – more on this in religion.ORF.at.
