Forest fires: what to expect in the years to come?

Global warming leads to an increased risk of fires, but since the 1970s, the burnt surfaces have decreased in France, this is also the case in Spain, in particular because the firefighters attack any outbreak of fire much more quickly, recalls the institute. research on agriculture, food and the environment (Unreasonable). That being said, the situation is not the same everywhere: for 40 years, fires have ravaged more surface areas in Portugal, the United States or Australia, for example.

>> Pyrénées-Orientales: the area burned by the fire is the largest ever recorded in the region in the spring

Global warming increases the risk of fire in two different ways. First, the high-risk season lasts longer and is no longer limited to summer: this is what we unfortunately observe with this particularly early fire in the Pyrénées-Orientales. And this is what we also observe, for example, with “mega-fires” in November or December in California.

Several factors to consider

Secondly, rising temperatures and falling precipitation also increase the risk of fires over larger regions, because the water content of tree leaves is a key factor in the spread of fires.

In this context, the risk of fire can be reduced firstly through prudent behaviour, because 92% of fire starts are of human origin and the risk of accidental fire starting is all the greater when there is a progression of habitats to the edge of forest or wooded areas. In addition, the type of vegetation also influences the spread of fires.

Softwoods spread flames more easily than hardwoods, eucalyptus trees are also very vulnerable to fire (and this is a problem in Portugal). Conversely, cultivated or livestock plots can create fire breaks, as there is less fuel to burn, and this can block the progress of fires. Prevention therefore also involves land use planning.