The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is final. The planet has warmed up by 1.1°C since the end of the 19th century and could still gain 3.2°C by the end of the century. If politicians and companies slowly become aware of the climate challenge, the disruption will still do damage in the years to come, regardless of the efforts made.
The evolution of the climate, city by city
Our colleagues from Geo have identified two tools made available by Météo France and the AFP which make it possible to discover the prospects for the evolution of the climate region by region. baptized HD Climatethe platform published by Météo France makes it possible to view trends in Metropolitan France, Reunion and the West Indies. For each of the regions, you can then select a city to identify past trends and future trends.
Among the analysis criteria, you can choose between thechanges in temperature, precipitation, climatic phenomena (types of freezing days, storms, extreme rain) or even the impact (drought, snow cover, etc.).
For example, climate projections in Île-de-France (below) show continued warming until 2050, regardless of the scenario. The most extreme scenario (in purple) could even lead to a rise of 4.4°C by the end of the century. The scenario with the lowest carbon emissions (RCP2.6) is the only one that will stabilize global warming at the end of the century.
The evolution of temperatures in Paris © Climat HD – Météo France
For each region, Climat HD gives you the outline of the evolution of the climate. For example, if you are in Alsace, Météo France predicts a continuation of global warming, whatever the scenario. In the extreme case, the increase in average temperature could be 4.6°C by 2100. If precipitation should not change, there should however be stronger seasonal contrasts. The organization also anticipates a decrease in the number of freezing days and an increase in the number of hot days. Finally, the drying out of the soil will be more and more marked, in all seasons.
All regions are affected
Based on data from Météo France, Agence France Presse (AFP) created the platform “Tomorrow, what a climate on my doorstep“, which also makes it possible to compare the past and future climate of a municipality. You can see for example here the results for the city of Paris. There should be no illusions: no territory will be spared by climate change, the data are alarming.
© AFP
Rising water
For its part, the NGO Climate Central has published a map of risk areas with rising waters which makes it possible to see the line of coast according to the level of elevation of the seas. Another bad news for our beautiful coasts: a rise of 0.5 meters would be “very likely” by 2080-2100, which could flood a good part of the coast in Brittany, in the Pays-de-Loire, the Hauts-de-France, Normandy or Aquitaine. In the South of France, the Camargue would suffer the same fate. Marseille could be a big victim of the rising waters if nothing is done. Of course, cities and politicians are working to prepare for such a scenario.
