Everyone makes their own calculations, every vote counts. After the announcement Thursday of the Prime Minister of the activation of 49.3 to pass the pension reform, a group of deputies attracts all eyes: that of the Republicans. Will they vote, or not, for the motion of cross-partisan censure? All eyes are on those who have the power to bring down the government of Elisabeth Borne.
Pensions: “We will not vote for a motion of censure”, assures the boss of the LR deputies
Let’s rewind. After Elisabeth Borne’s speech and the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, Thursday in the middle of the afternoon, several opposition groups announced the filing of a motion of censure. The one that is most likely to unite, from a central group, is that of the Freedoms, Independents, Overseas and Territories (Liot) group made up of 20 centrist deputies.
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Reach an absolute majority of 287 votes
To obtain the resignation of Elisabeth Borne and, de facto, of her government, the motion of censure must be voted by an absolute majority, ie currently 287 deputies with the consideration of 4 vacant seats in the hemicycle.
“L’Obs” did the accounts. This motion of censure can therefore be voted by the 20 Liot deputies, the 149 deputies of the Nupes, the 88 of the National Rally, which gives a total of 257 votes. To these, it would be possible to add the votes of the 5 non-registered. The total number of votes would thus rise to 262… on the condition, of course, that all the deputies vote.
The ball in LR’s court
But despite this condition, it would miss at least 25 votes for Elisabeth Borne to present her resignation letter to Emmanuel Macron. It seems unlikely that the members of the Horizons and Democrat groups (Modem and Independents), close to the President of the Republic, will vote against the government. Even more unlikely that the macronie itself will vote against its camp.
Pension reform: the spring of the unions
Remain then the 61 deputies Les Républicains. For the moment, a few voices are being raised within the right-wing opposition group, in particular that of Aurélien Pradié who takes the opposite view of the line imposed by Eric Ciotti, president of the party, and Olivier Marleix, leader of the LR deputies in the Assembly. Other LR deputies like Ian Boucard or even Maxime Minot have already announced that they will vote for the motion of censure. But according to information from “Politico”, only ten LR deputies are preparing to do the same. This Friday, there are still a lack of votes to exceed the 287 mark.
