At the beginning of the year, the Analytica consultancy projected a value very close to current levels. How much do you now estimate it will be worth in December 2023
For Mariano Jaimovich
12/26/2022 – 4:42 p.m.
At the end of last March, when the Dolar blue remained stable at a value below $200, the consultancy Analytics He projected that the informal ticket price could climb at the end of 2022 to reach a level close to current values.
The justification, at that time, was that the dynamics of the blue depended on the confidence that the markets would perceive regarding the Government’s compliance with the quarterly goals established with the IMF to renegotiate the debt with this international organization, and its subsequent impact on financial dollars.
Although these goals with the Monetary Fund have just been met and the price of the informal ticket reached the level projected by economists until December 20, in the last days of December this currency hit a new escalation to a current value close to $345due to the announcement of the Government that it will disobey the ruling of the Supreme Court for the co-participation of funds.
The rise of the blue dollar above $320 was predicted by the Analytica consultancy last March, when it was worth less than $200.
Blue dollar: explanations of the present price
Today, several months later, iProfesional spoke again with the Analytica experts to find out what are the reasons that ended up driving the price of the blue dollar throughout the year.
In the first place, it is described that in all of 2022 there was an increase in nominality expressed in the general price level of 95.3% year-on-year and 69.5% in the exchange ratewhich accompanied the interannual variation of 63% in the blue dollar.
“However, the fact that the variation in the parallel price has done so below the level of inflation has its place in the economic policy of raising rates, which improved the conditions for the absorption of pesos by deposits and in the resolution of the debt crisis in national currency in June and July”, summarizes Álvarez Kuhnle.
At the same time, he notes that in the last quarter a lower level of activity also meant that there fewer pesos from savings or earnings to be used to buy dollars in the free market.
2023 price for blue dollar
As to The price projections that Analytica economists have for blue for 2023 detail some aspects that should be considered. Especially, as it is an electoral year, framed by a context of drought for the countryside, low net reserves of the Central Bank and conflicting political signals..
“For the year beginning on Central Bank does not have space to lower the rate of depreciation of the official exchange rate, nor the interest rate, significantly. Therefore, if the Government succeeds in sustaining the roll over (renewal) of debt in pesos and there are no major disruptions, we should not see a shock in the price of parallel dollars,” sums up Álvarez Kuhnle.
For Analytica experts, the price of the blue dollar can rise almost 100% in 2023, so it would reach $650 in 12 months.
However, the projections of this expert are that, during the summer, the seasonality will put “upward pressure” on the exchange rate gap.
“The price of parallel dollars is below its theoretical value, the exchange rate gap can return to percentages close to 100% in 2023,” alert Alvarez Kuhle.
Therefore, In a good scenario, according to Analytica data, the blue could close December around $650.
“You must remember what 2021 was and in other election years, where there are a lot of pressure on dollar prices“, they detail from the aforementioned consultant to iProfessional.
The “advantage“, the economists conclude, is that if the fiscal adjustment and activity hardly movesthere will be less pesos in the street to press the value of the blue.
