Population: India overtook China as the most populous country in the world; Forecasts indicate that the current 1,400 million inhabitants would reach 1,700 million in 2064 and that by 2047 the curve would flatten. It grows the most in the poorer northern states (Bihar and Uttar Pradesh), while in the richer south (Kerala and others) it grows more slowly. The median age of the population is only 29 years; well below 38 in the US and 39 in China, which have higher aging rates. In India, those over 65 represent 7% (14% in China and 18% in the US) of the population; and it would only reach 30% in 2100. The Indian fertility rate, which in 1950 was 5.9 children per woman, has now dropped to 2; but it still has 360 million young people of reproductive age. Successive Indian governments continue to try to slow down population growth as a means of supporting the country’s economic development.
75 years ago it became independent from the British Empire, being a very poor country. In the last 15 years, 420 million people have been lifted out of “multidimensional poverty”, a historic achievement, although the bulk of it is still settled in the lowest castes; meanwhile, 10% of the population hogs 77% of the wealth. no doubt indian It’s still an unequal society.. 40% of the Indian population is under 25 years of age; one fifth of all the world’s young people (under 25) are Indian.
Education: 12% of US scientists are Indian; just like 32% of NASA mathematicians. India’s prestigious universities and technological institutes are supported by the State, which devotes large resources and scholarships to university education and are convinced that they can compete with and even surpass the best American, Chinese or British universities. Students (and their families), just like in China, work hard to study and stay away from the classic distractions of the West. In the British style, still so present in India today, the successive governments decided to create elites capable of competing internationally. In the nearly 400 prestigious Indian scientific universities Every year 200,000 engineers, 300,000 mathematicians, chemists and physicists graduate, and 2,000 graduate with the coveted PhD. India trains ten times more engineers each year than the US or the EU. As more graduate than those who are employable internally, they export engineers abroad and the best ones go to the big global companies, gaining very useful experience and knowledge.
The demographic dividend: the huge amount of young people of working age It constitutes an opportunity to accelerate economic growth and social development, provided that more resources are applied to investments in human capital in order to promote opportunities for productive employment and decent work, that is, in education, health, employment, social protection and pensions, since economic growth is directly associated with well-being in the short and medium term. The advantage of the “demographic dividend” is also contributing to the consumer boom and promoting the innovation, where India stands out in the development of the knowledge economy globally. But it is not guaranteed that this development will be achieved in the short term, since India, in its geopolitical projection, must also invest simultaneously in its national security. Those difficult decisions are a challenge for the next generations. India, however, has a good record, projecting itself as a major manufacturing center with a potentially huge domestic market, an expanding middle class, and governments that have skillfully positioned India at the center of global interest. Giant corporations, such as Apple, have begun to move part of their production to the country. It is estimated that India would become the third largest economy in the world by 2029.
Along with China, India will be the locomotive of the planet this year: between them they will contribute 50% of world growth. From the 10th century to the 18th century, India’s GDP plus China’s was 50% of the world total. 250 years ago, 70% of global manufacturing was located in both countries. We’re coming back to it, which corresponds to the size of the population.
From balance to power: With the dissolution of the USSR, at the end of the Cold War, India’s approach to the outside world changed. Without the economic and security support of its strong strategic ally, it was forced to diversify its foreign relations, which in the long run was beneficial, since it began, hard and with ups and downs, to depend much more on itself and to consider itself at the beginning of the 2000s, as a “major power”.
The Indian strategy was grow strongly economically and technologically, just like China did, and interacting with the global economy. As it expanded economically, Indian strategists began to plan for India’s more active involvement in global and security affairs. Without losing national sovereignty, it began to interact with the main and secondary powers, in what was later called the “multiple alignment policy”. External actors also helped to make this policy compatible, in the idea that each one also got their share of this apparent “balance of power policy”, which was only a mask of their real ambitions as a power, both at the regional level and at the regional level. Southeast Asia as well as globally, becoming strongly involved in the disputed space of the Indo-Pacific, an issue that worries the US and China in their dispute for the hegemony of said space. Despite its involvement in various alliances with the US and its border differences with China, India has never wanted to jointly patrol the South China Sea with the US or criticize China in joint statements. With this he did not seek to “balance”, but to establish his own geopolitical position. India’s growing maritime presence stems from the need to protect its trade boom and strengthen strategic ties with Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania and Pacific Island nations, in order to realize its goal of becoming a main power.
Everything suggests that the center of gravity of the Sino-American dispute is located in the Indo-Pacific space; consequently, the involvement of India will be an opportunity that it will undoubtedly take advantage of, both financially and strategically. Like any long-term goal, the path is not without problems and difficulties. It is still a very poor and very unequal country; its GDP per capita is USD 2,300, below countries like Bangladesh (2,500) or Vietnam (3,800). In absolute values, India’s GDP is about $3.2 trillion USD, compared to $1.8 trillion for Russia, $18 trillion for China and $23 trillion for the US, according to the IMF. The massive labor force is not sufficiently trained to favor the great changes that many predict in the short term; 46% of those over the age of 25 have not finished primary school, according to the OECD. Despite this, at the secondary and university level, they have focused on the appropriate topics: digitization, industrialization, urbanization, rural growth, infrastructure. It continues to be an eminently agricultural country, which employs 45% of its workforce in agriculture, despite the fact that it represents only 20% of its economy. They are not, for now, a frankly exporting economy; in 2022 they exported 420,000 million USD, which represents 13% of their GDP and less than 2% of world exports. It has a vast informal economy, and has one of the world’s lowest rates of incorporation of women into formal work. In addition, India’s military-industrial complex also faces structural weaknesses, which is why it has limited internal capacity to produce defense equipment, even as it seeks to take leadership on security issues.
In short, India’s great foreign policy is to partner with many countries (some, fought among themselves), wants to be friends with many more and does not seek to make enemies or create enemies with the rest. It continues to be wary of the security approach of “closed” alliances, leading to challenges in its bilateral or multilateral relations. India’s genuine desire is to jealously guard its idea of strategic autonomy; which is always difficult to sustain.
India, Russia, China and the United States: India handles herself well in conflictive environments, including among her relationships or friends. It has a historic alliance with Russia; Moscow is its main supplier of arms and, after the invasion of Ukraine, its main source of (cheap) oil; at the same time it is part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Russia, China, Pakistan and others); but at the same time, it has strengthened ties with the West, particularly in the QUAD security forum (USA, Australia and Japan), focused on the Indo-Pacific. For Washington, a strong India has become a key player in countering China’s growing power in Asia. With such innate ability of India, the Sino-Indian border issue is now gradually shifting from a conflict to a normalized management phase, and the situation on the border is expected to become more stable and calm in the future, which makes it easier the creation of areas of cooperation, including the economic partnership and climate change. India and Russia seek to deepen their economic ties, which have grown after the conflict in Ukraine, and which could lead to a free trade agreement. The goal is to double Indian exports to Russia to around $5bn this year, in order to mitigate its trade deficit, which has become huge as crude oil imports soar. India’s imports from Russia have quadrupled to more than $46bn since 2021, its exports to Moscow total less than $3bn. The war has made it easier to open up the Russian market to Indian exporters, especially for electronic devices and car components; a double advantage for India; although there are still difficulties with logistics and market access. While the US is still its main trading partner, India thus ensures a multiple offer of highly competitive goods and services.
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