The beginning of 2023 painted a grim picture for the industrial engines of the Mexican economy: Nuevo León, the State of Mexico, Jalisco and Coahuila.
According to seasonally adjusted data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), during January of this year, 10 entities registered monthly falls in their industrial activity, which is made up of manufacturing, construction, mining and electricity.
Among these states are those that contribute the most to the industrial Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
For example, Nuevo León, which is the entity that contributes the most to secondary GDP with 10.6%, presented a monthly decrease of 0.29% in its industrial activity at the beginning of 2023.
Meanwhile, the State of Mexico, second place in participation of manufacturing GDP with 7.2%, contracted its industrial production by 2.60%.
Jalisco is the third industrial engine with 6.7% of the secondary GDP, and Coahuila is the fourth with 6.3%; both exhibited falls of 2.71 and 10.04%, respectively, in January.
For the academic from the Tecnológico de Monterrey Campus Estado de México, Héctor Magaña, the cases of Nuevo León, Jalisco and the State of México obey the basis of comparison, that is, they previously showed solid growth, which is difficult to maintain in the long run.
“For its part, Coahuila presents a more complicated picture, since during January 2022 it showed a negative rate and in the same month of 2023 it returned to negative territory,” he said.
The specialist added that this behavior was due to the fact that industrial activity in these entities begins to normalize, after the extraordinary results that were obtained after the economic recovery due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
In addition, he added, consumption is normalizing and even due to the international economic situation, such as the possibility of recession in the United States, it is diminishing.
In the case of nearshoring, he explained that the effects will not be observed in the short term because, in most cases, physical and infrastructure investments take time to generate an impact on the economy of the entities.
overall impact
Kristobal Meléndez, an economic and financial analyst, pointed out that the repercussions of the war between Russia and Ukraine have been seen globally, “for example, inflation has increased in some countries and the rise in prices has directly affected the states Industrial Mexicans.
These states normally export products and if there is higher inflation, what happens is that shipments decrease and their industry is paralyzed; what we see is that if the state’s industrial vocation is affected, the entire economy of these states is affected as well. Some products are not bought, because the population does not have enough ”, he emphasized.
The expert added that the peso has appreciated against the dollar, a situation that impacts Mexican products, which end up being more expensive for the countries.
“So, this indirectly decreases their exports, affecting their industrial production; we have to be aware that the economic vocation of these states is largely industrial ”, he deepened.
“If the war escalates, it will have a more impactful effect on the economy and on the industrial states, also if the economic situation in the United States becomes more complicated, this could hit more,” concluded Kristobal Meléndez.
