All Master Chef participants have a common problem. The ingredients they use to prepare their dishes experienced 3-digit inflation
By Damian Di Pace – Economic Analyst
19/04/2023 – 17,23hs
If one can manage the necessary items with scarcity in the kitchen it can be a great indicator of efficiency to manage ourselves in our lives. The inflation in March 2023 it led food to a year-on-year rise of 106.6% on average according to INDEC. If we disaggregate the items for the case of fruits, the interannual average increase is 180% and for vegetables it is 165 percent.
MasterChef is a cooking reality show that has been broadcast on television since 2014, where on average more than 20 chefs compete against each other to overcome the different phases of the program with a distinctive dish of food and according to the rules of the contest. All Master Chef participants have a common problem. The ingredients they use to prepare their different dishes experienced 3-digit inflation after 32 years.
Ega inflation in each of the ingredients
In the last reality show, Gabriela (from Córdoba capital, 44 years old) secured her entrance to the program with a plate of meatballs with puree. In March 2022, this dish had a total preparation cost of $1,243.3 and now, according to the latest values in March 2023, we will see that the same recipe has a cost of 2,645.9 pesos.
Is about a year-over-year increase of 112.81%. The main ingredient is potatoes that had an increase of 378% (the input that increased the most and the most participation in the dish). Then followed by eggs with 234%, breadcrumbs with 135% and butter with 119%. With data as of December 2022, 60% of the Argentine population had an average monthly per capita family income of up to $48,080. Only the basic food basket for that month was 73,484 pesos.
Rudolph with his 3 milks cake He obtained the recognition of considering his dessert as 1 of the 3 best dishes of the gala. The interannual increase for its elaboration was 119.27%. Eggs were one of the ingredients with the highest increase with 234%, followed by sugar with 133% (in the graph this increase is observed 2 times because for its preparation it was taken into account within the sponge cake and the coverage), oil 141 %, flour 141%, salt 100% and condensed milk 113 percent.
Candelaria (from Berazategui, 26 years old) with the Carrot and orange pudding with chocolate ganache achieved the first gold medal in MasterChef. The year-over-year increase for this prescription was 107%. In this period, orange juice had an increase of almost 700% year-on-year (in this dessert the use of this input was for the preparation of the sponge cake and decoration). In the case of eggs 234%, oil meal increased 139%, flour 134% and sugar 133%, among others.
Over time, inflation increased the price of the participants’ dishes from the beginning of its first season until today. Throughout this period we observe that the “ingredients” jumped in their very important price between 2021 and 2022. They priced from 50.16% to 94.88% in 2022. In this 2023 season we can see that the series is above the others.
Inflation projections for this year in food and beverages have a floor of 115% on average.
Food inflation in the era CFK, Macri and Alberto F
If we analyze the inflation accumulated by presidency in food that includes the different seasons of the saga, you can see that in the second presidency of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner it was 183%, in the government of Mauricio Macri it accelerated to 305% and with Alberto Fernández, who still has 9 months left in his mandate, it has already exceeded the previous ones with 400 percent.
For the next few months, We do not see a solution to the inflationary problem of food for Argentines, but quite the contrary, the problem could worsen. The government had to choose between launching the agricultural dollar or running out of dollars, generating an even greater brake on the economy, which is estimated to have a floor drop of 2.7% by 2023.
opted for the agro dollar but this implies validating food prices at a dollar of $300, which puts pressure on prices in the domestic market on the entire local food complex. But in addition to liquidating the dollars, the central bank must issue pesos for an estimated 1.6 trillion, which is equivalent to 1% of Argentine GDP. Those surplus pesos will be partly sterilized in the placement of new local debt, others will put pressure on the parallel dollar and the rest will go towards the upward price variation in our economy.
The impact of the drop in revenue
This is not all in March collection fell 7.2% in real terms precisely due to the drought that left export duties for –64% year-on-year. This implies that the tax hole be financed with more issuance of weights not wanted by the Argentines. In turn, the agreement with the IMF implies that the official exchange rate cannot be delayed below monthly inflation, which is why wholesale prices will impact retail prices. In turn, the utility rate correction needed You will find an additional mechanism for indexing the prices of all goods and services in our economy.
The accumulated distortion of the government’s “macroeconomic” pot has all the necessary ingredients to conform the highest inflationary “plate” of the last 32 years. At the same time, it will surpass its own record as its economic policy no longer finds a form of containment unless it effectively recognizes the seriousness of the situation and turns down the heat on the “burner” going into a shock fiscal surplus so as not to generate a overflow from this pressure cooker.
