The inflation of 5.1% in December is a logical reason for concern for the governmentbut it also has a political impact that threatens the plans that they were already beginning to carry out in the Frente de Todos in view of the presidential elections, in which the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massabegan to establish itself as a fundamental piece.
The additional problem that the latest price index poses to the ruling party is that led Massa to immediately and publicly detach himself from the versions of an eventual presidential candidacy, just at a time when all the polls that began to be published in the last month place him as the most competitive figure in the Frente de Todos.
Voting intention polls agree with the group of governors, Buenos Aires mayors, trade unionists and even a part of Kirchnerism who began to see in Massa a hope of fill the gap generated by the collapsed image of the president Alberto Fernandez and the “resignation” of the vice president Cristina Kirchner.
However, the minister put a limit to the speculations: “Don’t put me on another race, because ours is a race to lower inflation”he affirmed during the act that he led last Thursday in Entre Ríos, where he even challenged his Secretary of Industry, José De Mendiguren, for having encouraged his candidacy. A message within the ruling party itself.
Inflation and the electoral problem for the ruling party
Strictly speaking, near Massa nothing changed. On the contrary, they ratify what they have maintained for months: that “He is not thinking of a candidacy” and is only concentrating “on management”. Months ago, it transpired that the minister affirmed even in private that he would not play in this electoral turn, which was added to the family reasons that he adduced in public.
But Other officialism sources consulted by iProfesional acknowledged receipt and assess that if it fails to consolidate the drop in inflation, it may decide to stay out of the electoral campaign and see what happens in 2027despite the fact that different actors had already begun to put chips on it.
Massa detached himself from electoral speculation and questioned the plans of a sector of the ruling party
Although Massa affirmed that with the December number “the downward path continues”, 5.1% (which marked a 94.8% accumulated in 2022) is not what I expected and, compared to November’s 4.9%, shows it a little further from the target of achieving 3% by Aprilwhich is when the candidacies of the ruling party and the opposition will begin to be defined.
With a Parallel dollar that puts even more pressure on it his management, experiencing a rise of 6% only so far in January, the minister is quick to tone down the electoral speculation that arises from the ruling party itself but, in the midst of his attempt, appears a new survey that confirms the electoral problem that this engenders.
This is a very recent survey by Raúl Aragón & Asociados of 1,500 respondents, dated January 5. The study gave Massa a voting intention of 24.8% and placed him in second place behind the Buenos Aires head of government and a benchmark for Together for Change, Rodríguez Larreta, with 29.1%.
New survey in favor of a Massa in doubt
When asked “If tomorrow were the general elections to elect a president Who would you vote for among the following candidates?“, the Aragon survey showed Rodríguez Larreta first, Massa second and the libertarian Javier Milei third, with 18.3%.
By changing the options and putting Patricia Bullrich instead of Larretathe president of the PRO also comes first (even better than the mayor of Buenos Aires) with 34.3% and, again, Massa was second with 23.5%.
The central fact is that This order coincides with that exhibited by other recent works. on intention to vote such as that of the consultancy Zuban Córdoba, which even measured it for a possible ballot and, both against Larreta and Bullrich, obtained better numbers than other figures of the ruling party.
The minister appears in all the polls better positioned than other “presidential candidates” of the Frente de Todos
In the survey by Raúl Aragón, Massa showed an intention to vote, between certain and possible, of 37.6% and 45.4% who would never vote for him, while Alberto Fernández obtained 32.1% against 58.8% and Cristina Kirchner 30, 1% against 60.9%.
The Frente de Todos and the challenge of electoral competitiveness
Despite having a high level of negative image, the minister’s numbers in this regard are also better than those of the President and the vice president. A recent survey by Management & Fit gave it a 24% positive and 57% negativewhile Cristina Kirchner had 26.8% positive and 64.6% negative. In the differential, Massa came out better. The President, meanwhile, was far below both.
Although all the polls are very preliminary with 7 months to go before the primaries (PASO), a pattern is noticed: Massa has an advantage over his partners from the Frente de Todos and other “presidential” figures like Daniel Scioli, for the center, or the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro, for the purest Kirchnerism.
In addition, the mere fact of appearing in the polls is useful -both for the head of the economic portfolio and for any other political leader- as “installation”that is, it generates a expectations about the eventual candidacy and the level of knowledge and consideration of the figure in question is raised regardless of what their intention is.
In this sense, the inflation data and Massa’s quick exit to deny journalistic versions and set limits to the sector of the ruling party itself that agitates his candidacy poses a challenge for the Frente de Todos.
And it is that the ruling party is looking for competitive candidates that will grant it, if not a victory, at least a defeat in which it can preserve the greatest amount of power possible to be the opposition in the future. In addition, Massa is considered by some sectors of the Frente de Todos as a possible unit candidate. According to versions that have circulated in recent weeks, both things would be taken into account by Cristina Kirchner, the inevitable electorate.
The minister continues to bet on achieving a noticeable drop for April, a key month for the elections
What did Massa say after knowing the inflation data?
When INDEC reported last Thursday that the accumulated inflation for 2022 was 94.8%, Massa was in Entre Ríos to participate in a management act together with Governor Gustavo Bordet. There he reiterated that he is not in an electoral “race” and contradicted his own and strangers.
“My career right now, with the responsibility I have, is a race to lower inflation, to make Argentina grow. Because lowering inflation cannot mean cooling the economy and it is a race to follow that path of 22 consecutive months of job creation,” said Massa.
To add forcefulness to the message, he took advantage of the presence of De Mendiguren, who had also spoken about his potential as an eventual candidate and pointed out: “Even you, Vasquito, sorry for reproaching you, you gave your opinion on the issue of the race.”
“They take you to places that, out there, are for those who have time to walk along the beaches instead of working in their cities and provinces, and throughout Argentina”, also launched the minister in what seemed like an allusion to the many leaders who toured Mar del Plata in recent days. Scioli and Larreta were among them.
