Food prices, in focus / tÉlam
Private analysts estimated that in December the rise in retail prices reached 5.5 percent, which, if materialized, would place it above the 4.9 percent of November, according to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) carried out by the Bank. Central. In this way, the price index would reach 95.5 percent, which represents a drop of 3.5 percentage points (pp) compared to the previous survey.
In this report, the results of the survey carried out between December 27 and 29 were disseminated, in which forecasts of 38 participants were considered, including 25 local and international consultants and research centers and 13 Argentine financial entities.
For December of this year, those who participated in the REM projected that inflation will reach 98.4 percent year-on-year, which represents a drop of 1.3 pp below the forecast projected in the previous survey.
Beyond the fact that this projection still maintains a level of inflation for this year that is among the highest in the world, the REM shows a change in the trend of analysts that of course must be sustained over time to become more relevant.
“Regarding the monthly dynamics of the inflation rate, the analysts corrected their projections from Dec-22 to May-23 downwards with respect to the previous survey. These downward corrections to the projections are observed both for inflation at the headline level and for core inflation”, indicated the Central Bank.
In this way, the REM expects that in the first six months of the year inflation will follow a path that goes from 5.5% in January to 5.8% in June, with a peak of 6.2% in March. The comparison of these monthly data with the previous survey shows the drop in projections.
Interest rate
The analysts also estimated that the annual nominal interest rate (TNA) corresponding to fixed-term deposits of 30 to 35 days in private banks, of more than one million pesos, average BADLAR will be around 69.45 percent, which which represents an increase of 15 basis points compared to the average registered during December.
Regarding the wholesale nominal exchange rate, it was located at $172.9 per dollar in December 2022. The forecast of those who responded to the REM indicates a monthly increase of $9.95 per dollar to $182.85 for January.
In turn, the variation in the nominal exchange rate forecast for December of this year rose to 79.6 percent yoy, reaching $328 per dollar.
Regarding the level of activity, the analysts estimated that the Gross Domestic Product will grow 0.5 percent in real terms, which represents a decrease of 0.3 points with respect to the previous REM.
For its part, the unemployment rate was placed at 7.5 percent by the end of this year, compared to 7.1 percent in the third quarter of last year, the latest record from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
