Half of those questioned in a national opinion poll carried out by INSCOP on behalf of News.ro say that they would certainly go to vote if parliamentary elections were held on Sunday, while almost a quarter say that they would certainly not go to vote. PSD is in first place in voting intentions, with 31%, followed by PNL and AUR, with a difference of less than 1 percent. In the case of the entire sample, which includes all voters, regardless of whether or not they go to exercise their right to vote, but who declared their option for a single party, PSD maintains the first place, but the second position goes to AUR.
Nicolae Ciucă and Marcel CiolacuPhoto: Inquam Photos / George Calin
The intention to vote was evaluated on a scale from 1 – definitely NO, to 10 – definitely YES, the question being: “If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, how sure are you that you would go to vote?”.
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means that “sure no” I will vote and 10 “yes” I will vote, 23.7% of Romanians chose 1, 1.8% of Romanians chose 2, 1.7% chose 3, 1.8% chose 4, 6.8% chose 5, 1.8% chose 6, 2.7% chose 7, 5.3% indicated 8, 2.5% indicated 9 and 50.1% indicated 10.
The share of those who choose grade 10 – sure YES is very high compared to the actual attendance recorded in the previous polls.
PNL and AUR, difference of less than one percent
Regarding voting intentions, the question referred to a fixed list of parties, being: “If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties/alliances participated, which party/alliance would you vote for?”
In the case of respondents who expressed their preference for a party from the list and declared that they would definitely go to vote (37.8% of the sample), the results are as follows:
- 31% would vote with PSD
- 20.4% would opt for PNL
- 19.7% would vote with AUR
- 12% would vote USR
- UDMR – 4.6%
- SOS (Diana Sosoacă’s party) – 3.1%
- Green Party 2.7%, PMP – 1.7%, Pro Romania 1.5%
- Forza Dretai 1%, REPER – 0.7%, another party – 1.6%.
AUR, in second place among those who opted for a single party
The respondents who only opted for a party from the list, regardless of whether they go to vote or not, being undecided, expressed the following options:
- PSD – 29.1%
- GOLD – 22.4%
- GNP – 20.4%
- USR – 11%
- The other formations are below the electoral threshold of 5% required to enter the Parliament.
“INSCOP Research decided to transparently publish the voting intention reported to two distinct categories of respondents: the so-called most mobilized voters, i.e. respondents who choose a party from the list, and declare that they would certainly go to the vote, without includes undecideds and non-answers (37.8% of the total sample), i.e. respondents who choose a party from the list, regardless of whether they declare that they will definitely come to vote or not, without including undecideds and non-answers (63, 8% of the total sample). What we find from the data is that PSD and PNL score slightly better on highly mobilized voters, while AUR scores better on voters who have a political option, regardless of how mobilized they are. At this moment we cannot talk about very clear trends of evolution/involution of voting intention. In the coming months, the shaping of these trends will largely depend on how the population will evaluate the progress of the economy, prices, as well as public policies with major impact such as those related to taxes, salaries or pensions. Also, an important role on the evolution of voting intention will be played by subjects outside the spectrum of government policies, such as cases of corruption or unforeseen crisis situations”, explains the general director of INSCOP Research Remus Ştefureac.
The opinion poll was carried out by INSCOP Research on behalf of News.ro. The data were collected between September 15 and 22, using the CATI method (telephone interviews). The volume of the simple, stratified sample is 1550 people, representative of the significant sociodemographic categories (sex, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum allowed error of the data is ± 2.49 %, at a confidence level of 95%.
