Russian forces are on the offensive on several fronts, writes the Institute for the Study of War think tank on Thursday night. New weapons and tanks from backers in the West are on the way, but it looks like the Russian offensive will hit the Ukrainian front first.
The Russians have deployed larger forces along the northernmost part of the front, and according to ISW they will try to retake the lost area in the direction of Kharkiv. On Thursday morning, Ukrainian forces announced attacks along the entire front and into Zaporizhzhya. Photo: ISW / Jørgen Herland / TV 2
On Thursday morning, Ukrainian military leaders announced that they had repelled attacks at 19 different locations along the front, including in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka in Donetsk. The attacks were also aimed at the areas of Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya.
Advances in Luhansk
The attack on Luhansk had been announced, but several sources believed that it would come later, and that tanks and new equipment would reach the Ukrainians at the front first.
UKRAINIAN FORCES: The anti-aircraft forces from the 80th Brigade were photographed on Wednesday as they stood in position at Bakhmut. On the night of Thursday, they are said to have repelled a Russian attack in the area. Photo: Yasyoshi Chiba
Already on Tuesday, the think tank announced that Russian forces were preparing a major offensive in eastern Ukraine. An unnamed Ukrainian military source told the Financial Times that Russia intends to launch the offensive before February 15. Then Ukrainian positions will have to defend themselves before the new tanks and combat vehicles arrive. The head of Ukrainian authorities in Luhansk, Serhii Haidai, also stated that Russian forces are mobilizing to the area, and on Tuesday he hinted that they could attack as early as February 15.
Now it appears that the attack came earlier. According to ISW, the Russians have gained little and negligible ground until Wednesday evening. Ukraine claims it has repelled last night’s attack, but TV 2 currently has no other sources on that.
Luhansk militia displays captured Ukrainian tanks in Lisichansk in July. The Russians are using the local militias in the attacks, according to ISW, and are trying to free Russian forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. File photo, 12 July 2022. Photo: AFP
Now the ISW think tank reports that the major offensive began along the Luhansk front already yesterday, although it has not yet reached full strength.
Several military regiments, including a tank regiment and air force, are attacking with significant intensity along the entire front between Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, according to the think tank.
There has always been fighting in the areas along the front, but what is new now is that the Russians are attacking with more troops, and that their lines have been reinforced. ISW writes that the idea is to make a quick offensive where they will take back the lost ground within a short time.
UKRAINES AT BAKHMUT: The artillery soldier photographed on Wednesday outside Bakhmut is part of the force which, according to Ukrainian military leaders, repelled an attack on the night of Thursday. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP
Not at full strength
According to ISW, Russian military bloggers are skeptical of the Russian military’s ability to carry out a coordinated offensive in several places at once. It may look like this is about to happen now, and the offensive will also come earlier than everyone had expected. There is little indication that Russian troops have taken up the planned positions.
The Russian military leadership has not yet deployed all the military divisions they have at their disposal in Luhansk, so according to ISW it is the beginning of the offensive we are seeing now, and it has thus begun early.
At the same time, the troops in Donetsk are being reorganized. The Army of the Donetsk Republic (DNR), which initially fought as a separate unit, was allowed to take control of a Russian artillery battalion, according to ISW. The purpose is to strengthen the exhausted militia fighting on the Russian side, but which has suffered heavy losses.
Simon ended up in the middle of the attack: – Ready to continue
The fact that the offensive comes before all the troops are reorganized and in position may indicate that Russia is trying to take positions before Ukrainian forces receive the new war material from their supporters. At the same time, it can be a very bad idea to carry out the attack before everyone is ready, since an uncoordinated offensive can hardly be used tactically in the same way as a well-coordinated manoeuvre. This therefore worries the Russian military bloggers.
The bombs fell in Sumy
While the Ukrainian front is being attacked by Russian forces, the bombs fell in several towns in the Sumy state.
According to The Kyiv Independent, Krasnopillia, Bilopillia, Esman, Nova Sloboda, Yunakivka and Seredyna Buda were hit yesterday.
While Zelenskyj is in France securing reinforcements, the offensive is underway. It remains to be seen what kind of strategy the Russian side has planned for this major venture, and whether they manage to carry it out.
