He working market It had a drop of almost 10,000 jobs in February after an atypical start to the year. This movement was linked to the loss of 401,032 formal jobsa decrease that was compensated in the general panorama by the creation of 391,078 jobs in the informal sector, according to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE).
The data provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) contrasts with that reported by the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), which in the second month of the year registered a monthly growth of 175,874 jobs.
This difference, explain specialists consulted by The Economistis because the information of the IMSS derived from administrative records and the enoeas its name suggests, is a survey that encompasses all the behavior of the labor market.
Thus, for example, while the IMSS only registers job openings in private sector companies, the ENOE also includes workers from different levels of government and the armed forces, as well as employers and independents with a formal profile. In this way, while in the first universe currently contemplated 21.7 million people; In a second, 26.0 million people.
“It does not mean that your data is not correct or useful. It is a well-designed sample, the data is extrapolated and a very precise and accurate estimate is obtained”, emphasizes Ana Bertha Gutiérrez, coordinator of Foreign Trade and Labor Market of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO).
Returning to the results of the ENOE, the increase in informal employment against the reduction of formal work in February led to a monthly growth of the informality rate from 54.8 to 55.5%, thus the indicator broke a positive streak of four consecutive months with declines.
Although it is complex to explain the factors that influenced the formal job contraction In the second month of the year, specialists agree that the Inegi data may reflect a higher cost of labor and more difficulties in formalizing employment, among other factors. In addition, it reflects changes in the government sector, in which 372,000 jobs were lost in the reported period.
“It is difficult to link it to a single element, there are several factors that generate disincentives for formality. The costs of formal workers are sometimes onerous for companies, the increase in benefits. But neither can we say that a reform like the vacation is the cause, it really is a more structural scenario and is linked to the cost of formality”, explains Ana Gutiérrez.
For Carlos Ramírez, director of Business Development at Integralia Consultores, this can also be linked to signs of weakness in sectors such as exports and in some activities related to trade and services. “Probably sales may have less dynamism.”
However, specialists point out, it is still premature to conclude that formal work At a general level, it is in a downward trend, particularly because formality has shown better dynamism than informality in recent months.
Independent work is strengthened
Despite the fact that on the balance sheet almost 10,000 jobs were lost in February, freelance work registered the best dynamism among all positions in the occupation, with 433,617 people adding to this population, the highest growth in the last nine months.
Carlos Ramírez believes that this can be related to the cost of formality. “This may cause more people to opt for independent work because social security is not paid,” although this is only a hypothesis.
In addition to this perspective, Ana Gutiérrez considers that the growth of the I work on my own accord It is also associated with new demands from the labor force, such as a better work-life balance and flexibility, but it cannot be ruled out that it is also due to a lack of interest in job offers in the formal sector.
What is a fact, the specialists agree, is that independent work, in addition to the increase observed in labor inactivity, may reflect a deterioration in the quality of occupation and a disincentive to remain in the formal economy.
