Kyiv.
Andriy Melnyk, ex-Ukraine ambassador to Germany, on the pressure of expectations from the allies – and what really makes him angry.
Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Germany, comes out of the Foreign Office in Kiev and turns up the collar of his coat. It’s fresh and gray these days. Since his return, he has been responsible for North and South America at the State Department. The way to the “Musse” café for the interview leads past the memorial wall for those who died since 2014. It is getting bigger and bigger. Andrij Melnyk keeps looking at the faces in the photos. He talks about the expected counter-offensive by the Ukrainians and is annoyed about the enormous pressure of expectations on the part of the allies.
Mr. Melnyk, the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected in the coming weeks. How important is this military operation?
Andrij Melnyk: It is very important for all people in Ukraine. This offensive is something of a ray of hope. We believe that with the help of our western allies we are able to liberate the occupied territories. This is not wishful thinking as some believe. Over the past year, the Ukrainian army has proven it can conquer larger regions like in . It won’t be easy, of course, because the Russians have been preparing well for months. It can’t go wrong.
The pressure of expectations on the part of the western partners is high. What happens if the offensive fails?
Melnyk: We’re made to feel like we only have this one shot and will be forced to negotiate if it fails. Desiring immediate success as a prerequisite for continued support from our partners is cynical and unfair. Military aid is given to us too slowly and only in small portions, but we are expected to hit the ground running, a prompt triumph. That annoys me a lot. The front line is over 1300 kilometers long. In Bachmut you can see how terribly difficult this war is. For nine months there has been a fight for every house.
Is that why you or other members of the Ukrainian government are afraid of what will happen in the next few weeks?
Melnyk: It makes me rather thoughtful and angry that we are being pushed into a corner with this pressure to succeed. There is no guarantee of a breakthrough. We would certainly need a lot more equipment, additional bandages would have to be sufficiently trained to solve this mammoth task. It’s not just about liberating a few settlements, but really being able to show for our society and our partners: we can make it!
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What would be a success of the counter-offensive for you?
Melnyk: An initial success would certainly be if we could drive the Russians back many kilometers in certain areas. We have been experiencing a brutal, bloody trench warfare for practically half a year. If we could set things in motion, could show how fragile the situation is for the Russians, including in Crimea, that would change a lot in our favor.
Do you believe in success?
Melnyk: Oh yeah! As a Christian, I believe in miracles. There have been many true miracles in this war. At first it was a miracle that Kiev could be defended in the first weeks of the war and that our state survived at all. There was the miracle of the liberation of Kherson.
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The expectations of the western partners are one thing. The other is the expectations of the Ukrainian population. How would the people of Ukraine react if the offensive was unsuccessful? Would the will to resist remain?
Melnyk: I think so. At the moment I don’t feel any urge for peace at any price. If we could show little militarily, we would have weak trumps in any case in possible negotiations. The vast majority of the Ukrainian population does not want to give up any country for peace. A rotten compromise cannot ensure a stable peace for all of us, at most a fragile ceasefire. Any discussion about negotiations is also complete nonsense, because the Russians don’t want to negotiate at all.
Your President recently spoke to the Chinese President and sounded quite optimistic afterwards. Could China bring about peace, even persuade the Russians to withdraw from Ukraine?
Melnyk: It’s not unrealistic. The Chinese, of course, pursue their own interests. But I do believe that a just, peaceful solution and the end of hostilities are more in Beijing’s interests than this massive, never-ending earthquake for the entire world order. The phone call with President Xi was a big step forward in strengthening our ties with China and ending Russian aggression. Of course, the Chinese view on this could be different from ours. For Kiev, the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the occupied territories is a sine qua non. The devil is in the details, so we’re excited to see what China’s special envoy, who will be joining us soon, will bring.
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