Melting glaciers: are droughts and floods threatening? Expert speaks plain language

Olaf Eisen can watch the subject of his heart slowly dying. He’s hoping scientist no more. “It’s a matter of time.” Eisen is a glaciologist. If the researcher at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and professor at the University of Bremen is very familiar with one area, then it is glaciers. He knows his area of ​​expertise – figuratively speaking – will melt away in the foreseeable future.

This gloomy forecast applies to Germany without reservation. The coming summer will be the first with only four official ones left in this country glaciers. Last year, the southern Schneeferner on the Zugspitze lost its status. What remains are the northern Schneeferner and Höllentalferner on the Zugspitze, as well as the Blaueis and the Watzmanngletscher in the Berchtesgaden Alps. But even those Olaf Eisen gives a maximum of “five to ten years”, says the glaciologist in an interview with our editors.

stop glacial melt at all? Scientists have a clear opinion

glacier are large masses mainly of snow, firn and ice, which mostly flow slowly from mountains towards the valley. Most of the glaciers that still exist today were formed during the last ice age around 15,000 years ago.

In early January has a large Study by Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburghpublished in the journal “Science”, once again underpins in detail what scientists have known for quite some time: The glacial melt can no longer be stopped, at most it can be slowed down. According to the study, even in the best-case scenario, most of the remaining glaciers will disappear. The cause is man-made climate change. “That is completely indisputable,” says Eisen, referring to the glaciologist community.

Consequences of the glacier melt for Germany – what you have to be prepared for

Which Follow does the global melting of glaciers mean for the people in Germany and for endangered regions worldwide? Sooner or later serious – but depending on the center of life with varying degrees of severity, says Olaf Eisen and his colleague Wilfried Hagg.

Both look at the disappearance of the German glaciers soberly. “That will hardly affect life in Germany,” says Hagg, a glaciologist at Munich University of Applied Sciences. After taking measurements last summer, he declared the Southern Schneeferner to be “dead”.

It is true that tourism in the Alpine valleys would lack an attraction, and some Alpine routes would become more dangerous due to scree. The rivers close to the Alps, such as the Rhine or Inn, are more affected. In the summers of the next one to two decades, the meltwater from the glaciers will cause the river levels to rise risk of flooding increasing in some regions.

Also read: Flash floods in the Alps – threatening forecast for mountain lakes

If the peak is passed and the glaciers are gone, very low water levels can occur in hot and dry summers without glacier water – with serious consequences for shipping, goods traffic, energy companies and petrol prices.

Global warming and melting glaciers: these countries are already being hit hard

How quickly the German and European mountain glacier disappear, Eisen explains, depends on the pace of global warming. According to the latest status report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the 1.5 degree mark could be reached within the next ten years. “That means that 50 percent of the mountain glaciers will melt,” says Eisen, in Central Europe all below 3,500 meters. If global warming rises towards two degrees or more, it will also become “critical” for those above it and thus for 70 to 90 percent of the mountain glaciers worldwide.

Also interesting: The Alps – Why is Europe’s protective shield under threat?

Unlike in Germany and Europe, according to both experts, the glacier melt is already increasingly threatening the basis of life in dry and hot regions such as Central Asia, Central and South America. Without enough Gletscherwasser agriculture and food supply are endangered in summer.

Glacier melt not the greatest threat: What experts are currently even more worried about

“If all the mountain glaciers melt, the sea level will rise by half a meter,” explains Hagg. However, the scientists see the melting of the so-called inland ice sheets as a much more dramatic factor in sea level rise: the shrinking ones ice sheets Antarctica and Greenland. Depending on the model, they could raise the mirror up to two meters by 2100 – with dramatic consequences for island and coastal residents.

Researchers are currently worried about Thwaites Glacier, a huge plug of ice in West Antarctica as big as the US state of Florida. If this becomes unstable, there will be “a major boost and the melt in the Antarctic will accelerate massively,” says Hagg. Whether this tipping point will be reached is no longer the question, says Eisen, but only when: “Has the system already tipped and we only see it in slow motion, or will it still tip in ten or 30 years?”

Also read: Causes and consequences – What you need to know about climate change

The other effects of the climate change: droughts and floods. The flood in the Ahr valley in 2021, the droughts in France and Spain in 2022. “These will develop over the course of weeks or months and can affect anyone,” warns Eisen.

Putting the brakes on climate change and glacier melt: Researchers make an urgent appeal

There is still a window of opportunity to address climate change and glacier die-off to slow down. Glaciologists say it is important that every country takes its own climate protection measures to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases to zero as quickly as possible. A small part of the dangerous CO2 in the atmosphere is also being researchedto withdraw.

Also interesting: “Google Earth” function shows the climate crisis in fast motion

“Every tenth of a degree less warming,” says Eisen, will help the glaciers. “We’re driving towards a wall and the longer we wait, the harder we have to brake,” says Hagg. “But at some point it’s too late, even if you brake hard.”

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