Last Friday the Mexican oil export mix closed its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating an advance of 28.2% to 73.23 dollars per barrel, after a surprise cut announced by OPEC+ earlier this month.
Over the same period, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23.64%, while North Sea Brent rose 18.3%.
“Until recently, the Mexican mix had a wide differential with the WTI. It took time to reflect the OPEC+ cut and the expectation of greater demand,” said Gabriela Siller, director of Analysis at Banco Base.
On April 2, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, announced a new cut in its production, subtracting around 1.16 million barrels per day.
This decision was taken as a measure to stimulate international crude oil prices, after they touched their lowest level in more than 15 months after the banking crisis in the United States.
On Friday the International Energy Agency (EIA) warned that the production cuts announced by OPEC+ could aggravate hydrocarbon supply problems and affect consumers.
The US agency expects global oil supply to fall by 400,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, citing an estimated 1 million barrel increase in non-OPEC+ production from March, compared to a 1.4 million barrel decline. of the producing block.
In his monthly report, he also indicated that his expectations for the demand for crude oil are maintained for the remainder of 2023, with an estimated growth of 2 million barrels per day, to reach a new record figure of 101.9 million barrels per day.
According to the EIA, this increase in hydrocarbon demand would be driven by the recovery of consumption in China, especially for the second half of the year.
come risks
The EIA also detailed that there are still risks for the demand for crude oil, especially in emerging economies that are still suffering the effects of persistent inflation.
OPEC issued its monthly report, where it illustrated a picture similar to that of the EIA, with fears about global economic growth thanks to high interest rates.
“Going forward, market participants will closely follow the news related to economic activity in the United States, as well as any indication that may suggest a possible drop in demand for energy,” wrote Gabriela Siller.
Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.26%, to $86.31 a barrel on Friday, while WTI crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.44%, to $82.52. The Mexican mix rose 0.1% to $73.23 a barrel
The Brent registered a weekly increase of 1.5%, the WTI of 2.4% and the Mexican crude of 1.82 percent.
Also helping boost prices was the US oil and gas rig count, an indicator of future supply, which fell for the third week in a row, according to Baker Hughes data.
Oil rigs fell two to 588 this week, their lowest level since June 2022, while gas rigs fell one to 157.
will continue to rise
Marcos Daniel Arias, an economic analyst at Monex Casa de Bolsa, explained that “there is still plenty of room” for oil prices to rise even more amid the upward trend they have been on since March.
He assured that WTI could reach a maximum of 85 dollars per barrel, while Brent could touch 90 dollars. In the case of the Mexican mix, it could rise to 84 dollars.
Alejandro Montúfar, general director of the consulting firm PETRO Intelligence, said that although fuel prices are expected to continue rising in the second quarter, he does not expect them to continue increasing for the third quarter.
“OPEC is giving more weight to expectations of the economic crisis, so I don’t think prices will continue to grow in the third quarter or recover the very high prices seen a year ago: OPEC has anticipated the drop in demand that visualize”, said the director of the consultancy.
Increase participation
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund (PIF) doubled its stake in oil giant Aramco to 8% from 4%, the official SPA news agency said on Sunday.
The crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed bin Salman, announced the “transfer of 4% of the state shares of Saudi Aramco to the Saudi Arabian Investment Company (Sanabil Investments), SPA said in a statement.
Sanabil Investments is a company 100% owned by the Saudi sovereign fund, called the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
This new operation “is in line with long-term initiatives to stimulate and diversify the Saudi economy,” and strengthens “the financial position and credit rating of the PIF” led by the crown prince, the agency said.
After this transfer, the Saudi state continues to be the largest shareholder of the oil company, with a 90.18% stake.
The crown prince is carrying out a vast reform program to reduce the country’s dependence on oil, of which it is the world’s leading exporter.
Saudi Aramco is the third largest public company in the world, with a market value of $1.926 trillion. (With information from Agencies)
