BUENOS AIRES.- Since the return to democracy, Argentina has never gone through a macroeconomic, financial and social setback as it is experiencing today, which is why Javier Milei, who won the presidency with 55.76% of the votes, assumes the first magistracy in a submerged country in a deep crisis, according to two analysts consulted by DIARIO LAS AMERICAS.
Argentina is among the five countries with the highest year-on-year inflation and already exceeds 140%. For three consecutive months, the nation is the first country with the highest monthly inflation rate globally, recalled Sandra Choroszczucha. Argentine political scientist
Official data indicate that poverty for the first half of 2023 reached 40.1% of the population and indigence reached 10%, stated the also professor at the University of Buenos Aires.
In his opinion, among the new president’s projections is to carry out a plan of shockstop the monetary issue and for this it is proposed to send a package of measures to Congress to achieve its approval, in order to implement a fiscal adjustment and a structural reform plan for deregulation of the economy, labor, tax reform and privatization .
However, on the political level, the academic maintains that whoever was the Libertad Avanza candidate will govern with a minority in Congress, “that is why it is important that he seek the necessary consensus to be able to implement his economic program.”
New cabinet
Regarding the appointment of his new cabinet, Choroszczucha indicated that “because he is a candidate outsiderwith a new, inexperienced party without structure at the federal level, needs agreements and support from other forces to achieve management and governability, for this reason it becomes an imperative for Milei to be able to incorporate deputies into its cabinet and into the presidency, and in the Senate to political leaders from both the hard wing of the Pro Macrista, who offered him almost co-governance with him, and sectors of non-Kirchnerist Peronism who can contribute by gaining support among Peronist legislators and governors.”
The elected president has 38 of the 257 national deputies, with seven senators of the 72 seats, with no governor in the 24 Argentine provinces and with no mayor. That is why he needs to seek support, said the analyst.
“Milei has already announced that we will suffer inflation for at least two more years because the application of the postponed exchange, salary and tariff adjustment is coming.”
For her, in this context it becomes important for La Libertad Avanza to agree and share power with other political forces. “And that is why the new cabinet already has political leaders from the hard wing of the Pro and federal republican Peronism. But this could bring conflict with leaders of his own party who are being left out of his cabinet.”
Adjustment
Milei is preparing to implement an adjustment and a package of structural reforms that will imply a rapid and strong reduction in public spending. “This may lead to resistance from vast sectors of the population who work in the State and many will lose their jobs, and from social organizations that outsource social plans and who, according to Milei, will be excluded from that work. That is, they will stop receiving these million-dollar items and the State will directly continue granting social plans,” the political scientist said.
Human capital
At the same time, considering the social emergency situation that is plaguing the country, the analyst said that Milei reported that in the Ministry of Human Capital (which will bring together the areas of Education, Labor and Social Development) there will be a larger budget because the most vulnerable will not endure the adjustment that will come.
“Probably, today’s impoverished middle sectors will not be contemplated by this ministry and this may cause governance problems.”
“Society knows that a super reform is needed that implies a mega adjustment, but ‘the chainsaw is endured until you transform into the tree’, the middle class and even more so the poorest strata (although perhaps they have chosen Milei) They have few reserves of strength to suffer more adjustment than what they have already suffered in recent years due to the very high inflation,” Choroszczucha concluded.
titanic task
For her part, Natasha Niebieskikwiat, a journalist from Argentina’s Clarín newspaper and a foreign policy specialist, confirmed that the new president assumes the government of a nation immersed in a deep economic and social crisis, “which, unlike other countries, did not result in a social outbreak as one might think.”
The analyst estimates that the task he has is “titanic” and although he won with a high percentage of difference over his rival, Sergio Massa, from Kirchnerism or the ruling party, it still generates many doubts as to what his government will be like.
Honeymoon
“Milei has a sort of ‘honeymoon’ at the moment with people’s immense desire to break with 20 years of Kirchnerist populism. Even so, his ideas generate a lot of concern; Economically she is ultra-liberal and we have to see how she responds to certain urgent social needs,” said Niebieskikwiat.
The Argentine analyst added that “Milei has placed a former emotional therapist who seems very suitable and very discreet and low-profile named Sandra Pettovello in the Ministry of Human Capital, which merges Health, Education, Social Development and Labor, three very important ministries.” sensitive. The new ruler reduced the Cabinet from more than 20 to 8 ministries. And that will be very complicated.”
He assured that in terms of international relations Milei has had a more pragmatic tone and has put a very charismatic woman, Diana Mondino, to manage the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from where good signals have come out, building important bridges.
But, according to her, all that remains to be seen. For example, “let’s agree that the main historical regional partner has been Brazil, so one fears that the bad relationship that Alberto Fernández had with Bolsonaro and this time Lula da Silva and Javier Milei will be repeated,” the journalist noted.
Regarding the cabinet, Niebieskikwiat noted that there were many twists and turns regarding the appointments, many of them shielded by politicians who are making alliances more than with Macrism with a non-Kirchnerist Peronism, “which was Kirchnerist, but now it is being recycled and that “They are helping him in political management where Milei has less experience.”
He considers that Macriism has not had the special place that Milei was supposed to have.
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Source: INTERVIEWS/DIARIO LAS AMÉRICAS
