Kurt Volker is a former US ambassador to NATO and was US special envoy for relations with Ukraine from 2017 to 2019.
So far, Russia has shown no sign of ending its war of aggression against Ukraine. But the country increasingly lacks the military means to achieve its own goals. Russia has therefore changed its tactics and is increasingly bombing civilian targets. The Kremlin hopes that this will allow them to survive Ukrainian and Western determination. This hope is wrong.
When the full-scale invasion began nearly a year ago, most observers believed that Russia would quickly defeat Ukraine. This prediction and many others turned out to be wrong. In view of the misjudgments, the West must learn the following lessons for 2023:
1. There can be no business as usual with Russia.
Fascist and imperialist ideology reigns in Russia under Putin. This makes Russia a threat to all of Europe. Should it be able to defeat Ukraine, this Putinism will continue to determine the country’s politics. States such as Poland, Sweden and Finland or the Baltic States would no longer be safe and targets of possible attacks. What would happen if Russia wins and deploys its troops on the Ukrainian-Polish border?
Putin’s crimes against his own people are second only to his crimes against the Ukrainians.
Kurt Volker,American diplomat
What would happen if Russia wins and deploys its troops on the Ukrainian-Polish border? For Europe to be safe in the future, Putinism must be defeated and Russian troops driven out of Ukraine. Similar to Germany and Japan after the end of the Second World War, Russia would then have to accept responsibility for its war crimes and agree to stop violating territorial borders.
2. Ukraine will never voluntarily cede territory to Russia and must not be pressured into doing so.
In every Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine, Ukrainians can be tortured, raped, executed and persecuted. We saw that in Bucha, Irpin, Kherson, Lyman and other cities. The Ukrainians will not leave their compatriots to such a fate and therefore will never cede Ukrainian territories to Russia. It is reprehensible even to suggest such steps.
Russia increasingly lacks the military means to achieve its own goals.
Kurt Volker,American diplomat
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy correctly assessed that: negotiations with Russia presuppose a complete withdrawal of the Russian armed forces. Ukraine must be compensated for the damage caused by Russia. Russian war criminals must be prosecuted. And Ukraine must receive security guarantees against future Russian aggression.
3. Russia “annexed” Crimea just eight years ago.
The West must stop falling for Putin’s disinformation campaigns that Crimea or other parts of Ukraine have always been Russian. Throughout its millennia-long history, Crimea has at various times been under Ukrainian, Turkish, Greek or Russian control. Until 2014, the peninsula was part of independent Ukraine for 25 years, three times longer than the current Russian occupation.
4. Ukraine has full rights to attack military targets in Russia.
This is where Russia’s attacks on Ukraine begin. The latest phase of Russian aggression has focused on providing Ukrainians with heat, water and food. The bombs are fired from ships in the Black Sea, fighter jets take off from southern Russian areas or the Caspian Sea. All of these airports, ships and planes are therefore legitimate military targets.
5. There is no reason for the West to impose restrictions on its military aid.
Putin is already saying he is at war with the West and is using all conventional means of war to attack civilian or military targets in Ukraine. Despite this, the West still refuses to provide long-range artillery shells, multi-role aircraft, modern tanks, or air and sea drones.
In order for Europe to be safe in the future, Russian troops must be expelled from Ukraine.
Kurt Volker,American diplomat
But there is no reason for these self-imposed restrictions. Not wanting to “provoke” Putin is a mindset from another era. Today, Russia’s defeat is the West’s only option. The reluctance to deliver important weapons to Ukraine unnecessarily prolongs the suffering.
6. Putin will not back down, but Russian armed forces lack the ability to win.
This puts the Russian generals in an untenable position. They struggle with losses, with illnesses and hypothermia, even against their own death. Putin is sending more and more untrained soldiers into battle. Russia cannot supply or properly equip its military.
Thus, Putin’s crimes against his own people are second only to his crimes against the Ukrainians. Therefore, it is also in Russia’s interest that the West helps Ukraine to win this war as quickly as possible. The recent decision by the US and Germany to send tanks to Ukraine is therefore a step in the right direction.
7. The West must intensify its information campaign towards the Russian military and secret services, the Russian people and the Western public.
Putin’s regime continues to spread misinformation about Ukraine, the West and the war itself. While many Russians know they cannot trust Kremlin news, clear messages from the West are lacking. They are essential for a new thinking in Russia and a post-war period. Major western embassies include:
The West does not attack Russia and will not do so. The only threat to Russia comes from Putin’s war against Ukraine.
The West supports the Russian people’s aspirations for freedom, peace, prosperity and security, which they are denied under the Putin regime.
Nuclear weapons must never be used. Their use by Russia would have devastating consequences.
8. The West must immediately agree on an economic strategy to support Ukraine that is consistent with its military support to Ukraine.
Rather than simply redressing Ukraine’s massive budget deficit, the G7, together with the EU, must revitalize Ukraine’s economy. Frozen funds from the Russian Central Bank should be confiscated and used for precisely this purpose. As agreed in December 2022, the G7 countries must also appoint senior officials for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
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Years Crimea was part of independent Ukraine before Russian occupation in 2014.
In order to facilitate investments in Ukraine, they should offer risk insurance for war damage to potential investors. In order to end Europe’s dependence on Russia, Ukraine can supply the EU with energy. The focus in rebuilding the country should be on private sector investment and economic development, rather than centralization and state control.
9. When the war is over, Ukraine must become a member of the EU and NATO.
The EU has already offered Ukraine candidate status. Now it must start the accession negotiations quickly. Development aid should support EU-oriented reforms.
The reluctance to deliver important weapons to Ukraine unnecessarily prolongs the suffering.
Kurt Volker,American diplomat
The forthcoming NATO accessions of Finland and Sweden show that there can be no security in Europe without membership in the defense alliance. We cannot ask either Ukraine or Georgia to accept an unsafe situation for them.
From a US perspective, the question therefore arises as to why the US should guarantee the security of Ukraine alone when they could do so together with 31 other countries in the NATO alliance. From a European perspective, is a security guarantee that leaves the USA out credible at all?
All of these observations show that the future of European security depends on the future of Ukraine. Unless Putin’s war is ended quickly, Europe is in jeopardy. But a Ukraine that defeats Putinism on the front lines and defends freedom, security and democracy for its own people will strengthen those values and security for all of Europe.
