Pollsters without track record or any type of experience, today they spread “opinion studies” through the media controlled by the regime, trying to boost the candidacy of the Chavista ruler, whose unpopularity has been evidenced in the reduced street rallies he calls for.
“It’s a very old trick. “This tool already has very little effect on public opinion,” says political consultant Luis Toty Medina, founder of the Venezuelan Association of Political Consultants (AVENCOPOL) and director of the firm Poliestrategia, in conversation with DIARIO LAS AMERICAS.
They do not pass filters
DataViva, Ideadatos and Insight are some of the latest pollsters that have appeared with favorable results for the standard bearer of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)with more than 50% support, which contrasts with the rejection rate reflected by firms with greater experience, prestige and credibility.
None of these “research companies” pass the filters of the “Surveyometer”a tool created by experts to analyze the reliability of different political surveys, available on the electoral website, Votoscopio, directed by the journalist and election specialist, Eugenio Martínez.
“The majority of those pollsters do not exceed the minimum score of the Surveyometer, in general terms, because there is no precision. Beyond a PowerPoint presentation or a poster on social networks, there is no access to any type of information that would give credibility to the survey based on the basic questions that the Surveyometer has,” he indicates.
The analysis of these “polls” gives a result of less than 10 points, which is why they are identified as surveys. “very pirated, without credibility”. “None of them know the complete questionnaire, the technical data sheet, the rejection rate, or who pays for or orders the study are not known in detail. It is not known if what you are seeing on social networks is the complete or incomplete study,” she adds.
Propaganda
Political scientist Ana Milagros Parra, host of the podcast Half, mentions that these “firms” do not have “reliable sources” and even have “accounts (social networks) purchased with followers.” “The sources are not available, not even the methodology, nor how they do the survey, nor where they do it. They are part of a propaganda apparatus”, he claims.
This “strategy” had already been used by Chavismo before. One of the first “research companies” to appear on the scene was the “renowned” GIS XXI pollsterdirected by the military man Jesse Chacón, current head of the Chavismo diplomatic mission in Vienna.
Within the framework of the legislative elections of 2010 and the presidential elections of 2012 and 2013, in which the opponent Henrique Capriles Radonski faced, first with Hugo Chávez, and then with Maduro, Chacón presented opinion studies in favor of Chavismo, until who was appointed Minister of Electric Energy on April 21, 2013, seven days after the Chavista ruler was elected, with close results, questioned by the opposition. “As always, after the elections that company disappeared”highlights Luis Toty Medina.
In the current context, there are also some well-known pollsters, which previously enjoyed a certain prestige and currently carry out field studies to “try to manipulate public opinion and the electorate”such as the Hinterlaces firm, directed by the businessman related to Chavismo, Oscar Schémel.
“Hinterlaces mortgaged its reputation, prestige and credibility, in his time, in favor of the government. He has had studies that are clearly unrealistic or manipulated, cooked, as they say,” Medina points out.
Supported by some analysts, these surveys hope to be echoed in Venezuelan society. One of them is the economist Luis Vicente León, director of Datanalisis, who recently appeared in Globovisiona channel managed by Chavismo, with statements that were strongly criticized on social networks, which detracted from the massive street rallies of the opposition leader, María Corina Machado, in support of the democratic opposition’s candidacy.
“These characters (analysts) echo and have these pollsters as sources to validate their ‘analysis’ or perceptions of the country, which in the end is manipulated to give the PSUV candidate the winner or favorability”Parra highlights.
Validate a fraud
This type of “maneuvers” can be considered a desperate measure by the ruling leadership, in its attempt to promote a scenario of misinformation, in the midst of a communicational hegemony, to manipulate the masses.
“The lack of popular support in the rallies and activities of the government and its leaders, the discontent of its own grassroots leadership that refuses to join the PSUV mobilization machinery and the resistance of the Chavista electorate itself, will make the government take advantage of any lifeline between now and July 28”Medina emphasizes.
He considers that, if the regime had the “certainty of being the majority and of winning the elections” or of “committing fraud with relative ease,” it would have allowed María Corina Machado to participate.
“Such a distorted and unreliable opinion study only serves the government to validate, among its increasingly minority support base, that it has the preference of the majority of voters. What’s more, a endogamous exercise of self-affirmation among his followers to try to keep them ‘convinced’ that the reality they see of opposition to their option is unreal,” he maintains.
Likewise, he warns that these supposed investigations serve to try to validate, even, “the possibility of fraud in your favor”.
No major impact
In addition to the “polls” and related analysts, the regime relies on the “capture” of “political actors who dress as opponents” and promote pro-government discourse to give “room for maneuver” to Chavismo in the face of “distrust.” ” that their spokespersons generate in the population, indicates political scientist Ana Milagros Parra
“In the disinformation scene, the government is present all the time. What we are seeing is an environment of more misinformation and more propagandabut whether it is effective is the question and at this moment it is not being effective,” he says.
He assures that the “impact” that these questioned polls and analysts could have on public opinion has been minimized by “the strength” of the candidacy of Edmundo González Urrutia, favorite in reliable polls with an advantage of more than 20 points over Maduro; and the campaign promoted by María Corina Machado. “He feeling is different, the mobilization is different. There is a hope, a feeling and a perspective for change that did not exist a few months ago”, he asserts.
Given the censorship and misinformation that exists in the country, strengthening communications from the opposition to promote the candidacy is essential to prevent citizens from being demotivated. “We must boost people’s feelings and make them generate much more confidence, which is something that is happening almost naturally. We have to make it stay and translate it into participation on July 28,” she emphasizes.
