New weapons for Ukraine’s spring offensive? “Slowly getting to the pain threshold”

The supporter countries of Ukraine meet again in Ramstein. The offensive of Zelenskyy’s troops could begin at any time. How can the West help now?

Vitali Klitschko was particularly taken with one weapon system. “Hit rate 100 percent” owns the Iris-T SLM air defense system, which Germany has supplied to Ukraine. The system has significantly increased security in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, its mayor recently told the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Not only Klitschko, once a professional boxer, should have been happy that Germany delivered a second such system to the country this week. But that’s not all: The federal government announced on Wednesday that a second Patriot air defense system had also arrived. “Effective air defense is Ukraine’s life insurance,” emphasized Lieutenant Colonel Markus König, who was responsible for training Ukrainian soldiers on the system.

Ukraine will also need effective air defense when the spring offensive begins: there is great hope in the country that Ukrainian soldiers will be able to gain the upper hand against Russia on the battlefield. Officially, no one knows exactly when the major attack will begin. However, the conference of the so-called Ukraine contact group in Ramstein, which starts today, could possibly serve to coordinate again on a large scale. What can the western partners do now to support the offensive?

“It makes no sense now to deliver new weapon systems. There is not enough time for that,” said Rafael Loss from the European Council on Foreign Relations in an interview with t-online. Burkhard Meissner from the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies sees it similarly: In principle, any weapon would help Ukraine, but that is not the only decisive factor, but “that all systems work together in the right way,” Meissner told t-online .

That also seems to be the German government’s route: “What is required now is essentially more of the same,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the subject during his visit to Portugal.

Above all, Ukraine currently needs more artillery ammunition. But that’s where the reserves in the west are not particularly large, says Rafael Loss. “With ammunition, we’re slowly reaching the pain limits of what can be delivered.” This is also due to the fact that in the past few months there has been a failure to further expand the capacities of the industry.

However, the western states are not yet completely blank: Before the conference, the USA had announced new arms deliveries worth the equivalent of 297 million euros. The package is primarily intended to contain artillery shells and ammunition for the Himar multiple rocket launcher.

At the same time, the Netherlands and Denmark want to participate in two ammunition initiatives, each with 130 million euros. One comes from Germany, one from the entire EU. At the end of March, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced that a million more projectiles were to be procured for Ukraine. However, the ammunition could only be found in the course of the next twelve months. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov complained that his country needed the corresponding amount immediately.

There is also a shortage of ammunition in the German Gepard anti-aircraft vehicle: Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently tried to get supplies from Switzerland. However, the government there remains firm. During a visit to Berlin, President Alain Berset emphasized that Swiss neutrality forbids military support for one side in the war.

So will the delivery of new weapon systems not take place at all at the conference? Even if they will probably help less in the short term, the medium and long-term perspective should be considered: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been insisting on the delivery of more fighter jets for some time. So far, only Poland and Slovakia have delivered Soviet-era MiG-29 jets from the western supporter states.