January 12, 2023. At the Matignon hotel, we receive the fine flower of the right. Elisabeth Borne welcomes the boss of LR Eric Ciotti, the president of the group at the Assembly Olivier Marleix and his counterpart in the Senate Bruno Retailleau to discuss pensions. The atmosphere is cordial, the political convergences are obvious between these four personalities. Two days earlier, the presentation of the main lines of the reform received the consent of the three tenors on the right. The executive has made several concessions, from the postponement of the legal age to 64 to the revaluation of small pensions. At the beginning of the exchange, the Prime Minister evokes a personality little known to the general public: Aurélien Pradié. She confesses not to understand the positioning of the deputy of Lot, hostile to government copying. His interlocutors have the wisdom not to bounce on the words of the Prime Minister. One does not criticize a brother in arms in front of the enemy.
The Prime Minister hits the nail on the head. The parliamentary right is still polyphonic on pensions. Its elite, concerned about “credibility”, speaks with one voice. Its basis is diverse. Several LR deputies are reluctant to vote for the government bill, debated in the Assembly from February 6. “Ciotti and Marleix came out of the meetings with Borne with the conviction of having rectified the brutality of the reform, which is true. But this enthusiasm has never fully infused the LR deputies”, summarizes the elected representative of the Vosges Stéphane Viry, at the forefront of the pension file with his colleagues Thibault Bazin (Meurthe-et-Moselle) and Véronique Louwagie (Orne).
Coming from rural or working-class constituencies, these elected officials do not want to swallow cod liver oil for their voters, in the midst of inflationary conditions. All for zero political gain, the government being sure to reap the benefits of an adopted reform. “Most are sincerely against a tightening of the rules, notes an LR strategist. They are the spokespersons for the little music they hear at home: ‘it’s always the same people who pay’.”
More than a leader, Aurélien Pradié is the media figurehead of these refractories. Long hostile to any age measurement, the Lotois has amended its position. His “red line”: long careers. He wants those who started working before the age of 21 to be able to leave before the legal age if they have validated their 43 years of contribution. In the current version of the reform, some workers will have to contribute 44 years before retirement. “The more the weeks pass, the more the French will measure the massive injustices of the current pension reform. Women, mothers, those who started working at 20, or before 20 without 5 validated quarters. Workers. Without justice, not reform”, he tweeted on Wednesday evening, when Eric Ciotti presented his wishes. The government is for the moment inflexible on the subject, evoking inevitable “threshold effects”.
At the Assembly, we learned to count each other. Every vote is crucial under this cursed relative majority. Only one being is missing, and a 49.3 is unsheathed. The management of the LR group took out the calculator. According to his count, five or six deputies will vote against “in all circumstances”. The names of Pierre Cordier (Ardennes), Maxime Minot (Oise) or Fabrice Brun (Ardèche) are cited. It counts a dozen deputies currently hostile, but determined to obtain new government concessions. Aurélien Pradié and his relatives are mentioned here, such as Julien Dive (Aisne) or Raphaël Schellenberger (Haut-Rhin). Finally, there remain the silent and the promoters of reform, such as Nicolas Forissier (Indre).
In the Pradié camp, we judge ourselves to be in the majority. “Today, not half of the group is ready to vote for the reform, confides the deputy of Pas-de-Calais Pierre Henri Dumont. And social protest can only reinforce hostility to the project. ” This lying poker stirs up internal tensions. A consultation conducted by France Inter with the 62 LR deputies heated the spirits. According to the count, 16 deputies oppose the reform, 15 are in favor, 7 think they will abstain and 4 are undecided. 20 did not speak. Warned of this approach, Olivier Marleix asked his peers not to respond to the radio, suspected of dividing LR. The boss of the LR deputies reiterated this warning on Tuesday in a group meeting.
The man does not have it easy. Like Eric Ciotti, this anti-Macron exercises little authority over his group, an aggregate of individuals more than a homogeneous block. However, he must unite his peers around a common position. During an internal meeting, the group agreed on Tuesday on a dozen amendments to be made, ranging from the situation of women to survivors’ pensions. In private, Olivier Marleix judges that the executive will have no choice but to let go of long careers, a point of internal tension. Renowned technician, the deputy of Eure-et-Loir is not unanimous internally. He is criticized for his “rigidity” and his managerial shortcomings. An LR deputy was thus recently criticized by SMS for his lack of “loyalty” after a press release on pension reform.
In group meetings, his spats with Aurélien Pradié are frequent. The third man in Congress LR has invested in the pension file, participating in all internal meetings. He boasts of his consistency and believes that he has rallied several LR colleagues to his position. His opponents – many – mock a thirst to exist at all costs. “His spring is to single out and to weigh as strongly as possible. He is devoured by the ambition to be”, loose an LR leader. He defends his strategy of pressure on the executive, a condition for the survival of the right. “We folded everything when the match has not yet started. What are we going to do for a month? He confides. The role of auxiliary is not a role that we remember.”
Behind the substance, the debate is also strategic. Apostles of “responsibility”, Eric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix believe that the right must support pension reform to win back the Macronist electorate, the object of all covetousness in 2027. Aurélien Pradié and his relatives, on the other hand, believe that the right must conquer in priority the popular strata to find the Elysée. Hence their fear of appearing as a docile partner of Emmanuel Macron. This tactical divergence is not the unit’s best ally.
Unfathomable LR. The majority watches their “rival partner” with awe. The France Inter consultation was discussed on Wednesday at a Renaissance group meeting. The president of the Aurore Bergé group assured that the 62 LR parliamentarians would “probably have a swimming pool during the examination of the text”. Some majority executives fear that the right will abandon the hemicycle during the debates, at the risk of putting the presidential majority in the minority on certain votes.
From there to let go of the government in the final vote? “If it’s Bérézina, they won’t be around the table,” breathes a minister. One of his colleagues, at the forefront of the file, is more optimistic. “They are reliable, they don’t want to give Pradié gifts. And there’s no point in putting pressure on them every day on the subject!” Passed from LR to Renaissance in the spring, the deputy Robin Reda hardly fears the reluctance of his former family. “Bluffing,” he says. The elected representative of Essonne reassured Elisabeth Borne on the subject on Tuesday. “The LRs will be responsible. They have no choice but to be consistent,” he assured the Prime Minister, on the sidelines of his wishes to the majority parliamentarians.
Bluff or no bluff? We do not probe souls. Everyone shows the muscles for the time being. “Either they return to the niche, or they will abstain. But these deputies have no interest in being marginalized in the group”, assures an LR executive. A relative of Pradié denies: “Do you think that I have something to do with being in the political office of LR?” Only a vote will decide this question.
