Formally, the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO) consecrate the formulas that will compete in the presidential elections on October 22. In practice, they function like a large national poll on the trend of the electorate.
There is considerable agreement among analysts that the electoral process that will start on Sunday could mark a turning point in Argentine politics, with a society that seems to have reached the limit of its patience due to inflation of more than 115% year-on-year. that devours their income, a structural poverty that is around 40% and an insecurity enhanced by the advance of drug trafficking.
A sign of this is the absence from the ballots of the center-left former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015), current vice president, and the conservative former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) – extremes of a polarization that marked Argentine politics in the last two decades-, which would account for the incipient decline of both leaderships and the emergence of others.
“It is not only about an election for change or continuity, it is also about an election for change or continuity in these leaderships. It is the first time in almost 20 years that there is a transition between the two great coalitions,” Mariano Machado, principal analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk consultancy, told The Associated Press.
He added that “we are seeing if they are going to take a step forward in terms of at least relegating their original leaders Cristina and Macri to a slightly less leading position. It would be the signal that would be best interpreted by outside observers.”
Nor is President Alberto Fernández part of the electoral contest, who gave up seeking re-election due to his unpopularity.
In this context, the center-right opposition coalition Together for Change appears better profiled in the polls to regain the political power it lost in 2019 at the hands of Peronism.
For this reason, his primary between the mayor of the capital, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and the former Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, with an open result, “is crucial because it defines the candidate who stands out for the general election,” projected Juan Cruz Díaz, director of Cefeidas, a political risk consultancy based in Buenos Aires.
Macri’s political partner since the beginning of this century, Larreta chose to distance himself from the referent of his space and has raised the need to establish bridges with other political forces to carry out urgent economic reforms.
“Larreta decided to break that link of more than two decades to build a more personal and independent figure. His candidacy is not conditioned by the figure of Macri, ”said Díaz. He noted that Larreta’s narrative is “more dialogue-oriented.”
Bullrich, a leader who began in politics in the 1970s in left-wing Peronism and later moved through different spaces until she was in the toughest wing of Together for Change, is closer to Macri’s leadership, although she clarified that will not be your puppet.
On the other hand, it is discounted that the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, a moderate within the ruling Peronism, will prevail in the internal of the official Union for the Fatherland over the leftist social leader Juan Grabois.
Although the electoral power of the minister is conditioned by the failure of his management to contain inflation, a good election could consecrate him as the new leader of the future opposition Peronism.
“Massa has a good image in the private sector. Always willing to dialogue. perceived as positive. His ability to dispute the centrality of Cristina (within Peronism) will depend on the result in October, ”said the expert Díaz.
But there are two factors that add to the uncertainty about who will emerge as the most likely competitors to reach the Casa Rosada. The emergence of Javier Milei, an ultra-liberal economist who proposes to dollarize the economy and close the Central Bank and unites the vote of the outraged with the traditional politicians. And the high absenteeism of voters in the provincial elections of the last months, which could be replicated in the primaries despite the fact that voting is compulsory in Argentina.
“People are quite disoriented, they don’t know who to vote for. They don’t even talk. In other years they talked more. Not now, they are resigned,” said Damián Altamirano, a 39-year-old taxi driver. “I vote for Milei out of the blue, the other candidates do not give me security. At least in the STEP. Then I see who is left ”.
For the analyst and political consultant Orlando D’Adamo, director of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Belgrano, “there is disappointment among the people with politicians insofar as they not only do not improve things, but also do not prevent them from getting worse.”
“Argentina has been in trouble not since 2019, nor since 2015. The main economic and social indicators show a marked downward trend, with some circumstantial rises. This widespread disbelief, I think, facilitates the emergence of political leaders like Milei, ”he opined.
Sunday will be the first stage of a process that will end on December 10 when a new president takes office, who, in addition to inflation, will have to deal with the shortage of dollars and the heavy burden of indebtedness with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and private creditors. .
“In Argentina, nothing can be left closed because it always surprises, but it gives the feeling… that Argentina is entering a new cycle with generational renewal of both coalitions,” ventured Artemio López, political analyst and director of the social research consultancy Xs. “I don’t know what form this cycle will take in political terms and in party format, but I know that these leaders that appear in this election are intermediate, transitional, and low intensity.”
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Correspondent Almudena Calatrava and photojournalist Natacha Pisarenko contributed to this story.
FOUNTAIN: Associated Press
