Rebels against Putin: What’s left of the opposition in Russia

Snowballs rain down on the heavy helmets of the special police officers. The notorious Omon fighter grab their batons. But then they withdraw. Cheers erupted on Moscow’s Pushkin Square.

The mostly young people have no idea that this will be the last small triumph for a long time. On this Saturday in January 2021, they still believe that they can make a difference. That Alexej Navalny, against whose arrest they are protesting, could become a symbol of a Russian spring. In the middle of winter, tens of thousands take to the streets across the country, in Siberia at temperatures of minus 40 degrees. But the real one ice age in Russia only begins on this day.

The war against Ukraine turned Russia into a different country

A Moscow court convicted Navalny in summary proceedings. It is sending President Vladimir Putin’s most important opponent to prison for two and a half years for allegedly evading the authorities. Two and a half years – Vladimir Kara-Mursa can only dream of that. In April 2023, the judiciary loyal to the Kremlin resorted to completely different punishments.

Kara-Mursa is imprisoned for 25 years. For treason. The opposition politician is said to have spread misinformation about the army waging war in Ukraine. Since the invasion, Putin’s Russia has become a different country once more. Kremlin critics speak of “neo-Stalinism”.

In view of the millions of dead people in the Soviet gulag, that may be an exaggeration. But the cases of Navalny and Kara-Mursa show a dramatic escalation. The police state and the political judiciary are hitting more and more mercilessly.

Russia: Concerns about Navalny and Kara-Mursa are growing

In the case of Navalny, the courts have long since followed suit. His sentence is currently nine years, but new trials are constantly being added. Detention until 2051 is possible. With that he would overtake Kara-Mursa again. However, confidants of the two men doubt that they can make it through the coming years. Although Kara-Mursa is only 41 years old, Navalny 46. But both survived poison attacks, allegedly carried out by the FSB secret service. They suffer severely from the consequences, are emaciated and appear frail.

Also read: Ukraine War: Why Russian Soldiers Are So Violent

Nevertheless, both have consciously placed themselves in the clutches of “this murderous regime” by which Kara-Mursa speaks. A Russian politician belongs in Russia, he says, and Navalny agrees. The two are thus in opposition to one “school”. They rely on what you could call the Mandela Effect. Nelson Mandela, the legendary anti-apartheid fighter in South Africa, was imprisoned for 27 years before being released and elected the country’s first black president.

How long is the Ice Age supposed to last? Russia not last: “We know that such regimes can end quickly,” says Kara-Mursa. Violence is primarily a sign of fear and a sign of weakness. No regime lasts forever.

“Everything in Russia is currently about existential fear”

Behind these considerations is the idea of ​​a martyrdom. torture endure to gain the respect of men. In order to be able to lead Russia into a bright future after Putin’s downfall. That is the plan, but its realization depends on external factors. About a defeat in the war, for example, about the crash of the economy or about power struggles in the Kremlin.

All of this is possible, but is it also probable? The only thing that seems certain at the moment is that the people in Russia will not rise up en masse against Putin’s rule any time soon. Polls show more than 70 percent support for the regime. The values ​​may not be very reliable. But experts do not doubt the stable trend.

Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict

Fear is the key here. “Everything in Russia is currently revolving around existential fear,” explains Moscow sociologist Grigory Yudin. There are the beating ones Omon police officers and the draconian laws being enforced in show trials such as the Kara-Mursa case.

Last but not least, missing in Russia the belief that more freedom can bring about a better life. Memories of the dark 1990s are still alive, when mafia and oligarch battles raged under “democratic” President Boris Yeltsin. Navalny and Kara-Mursa are unable to take away the fear of falling back into anarchy.

Former world chess champion Garry Kasparov also belongs to the anti-Putin opposition

And those opponents of Putin who are working from Western exile to overthrow the regime are even less able to do so. They form the other school of the liberal opposition, which sees little chance of martyrdom in prison. This includes prominent figures. Former World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov For example, who joined the anti-Putin opposition early on.

Today he lives in Croatia because in Russia the penal camp is imminent. Or the Germanist Irina Scherbakowa, who co-founded Memorial in 1989. The human rights organization received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022. At the age of 74, Scherbakova lives in Germany, from where she observes the “relapse into Stalinism with anger”. Nevertheless, Russia remains her homeland.

Kasparov says so, too, and he’s convinced: “I will return.” Only when and under what conditions? His biggest hope is a UK victoryraine at war, explains Kasparov. “That’s what we fight for.” Doubts are allowed, however, that exiled Westerners working towards Russia’s defeat will find a hearing in their patriotic homeland.

The accusation of the treason. The media critical of the Kremlin, which initially fell silent after the Ukraine invasion and later resumed their work in exile, also suffer from this. The TV channel “Doschd” is one of them, as well as the “Nowaja Gazeta” by Dmitri Muratov, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021. Also interesting: Ukraine: The difficult hunt for Russian war criminals

Oppositionists don’t want to give up

To forestall a ban, the newspaper ceased operations in March 2022. A good half of the editors went into exile, where they now publish the “Nowaja Gazeta Europe”. There, too, threatens Violence. Nobody is safe from Putin’s long arm, says editor-in-chief Kirill Martynov. But: “As humans, we have no choice as long as we don’t accept war. And we never will.” On this point, the exile oppositionists agree with the “martyrs” Kara-Mursa and Navalny.

Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war

Incidentally, their comrades-in-arms also work from Exile out of. Leonid Volkov has become the main asset of “Team Navalny” in the West. He lives in Lithuania, tweets a lot and has settled accounts with the regime in his book “Putinland”. The Navalny team has 6.35 million subscribers on YouTube alone.

It is a misconception that people in Russia do not have the Krieg know, says Volkov. The plump 42-year-old with the reddish full beard, who looks like a human Russian bear, is a realist: “Putinland is a totalitarian state.” But he remains optimistic. After all, the people in the Soviet Union had also overcome the dictatorship. The only open question is when the ice age will give way to a new thaw.

More articles from this category can be found here: Politics