With negative net reserves of just over US$1.4 billion, The Central Bank started the week by extending the buying streak in the official exchange market due to lower demand as a result of the new exchange restrictions for importers that were put into effect last Friday.
In any case, the soybean dollar 3, which has already completed its first month of validity and ends on May 31, continues not to yield the fruits expected by the government, which it aspired to obtain with this fixed exchange rate at $300, some US$5,000 million. .
In that framework, The expectation that an improvement in the agricultural dollar scheme will be announced for June remains latent in the marketGiven that analysts consider that the measures announced over the weekend, including the rise in the interest rate for fixed terms, do not solve the underlying problem, which is the lack of dollars.
And the thing is that the prospects for the future look discouraging in terms of foreign currency inflows given that last week the Rosario Stock Exchange once again cut forecasts for soybean production due to the impact of the drought.
Reserves: with new obstacles, BCRA extends buying streak
The BCRA registered this Monday a net positive balance of US$ 60 million for its intervention in the single free exchange market (MULC) with which it prolonged a buying streak for the seventh consecutive day.
The monetary entity slowed down the purchasing pace in relation to the favorable balance of US$101 million that it achieved last Friday, the largest purchase since last April 24, and which allowed it to close the week with a positive result of US$125 millions.
The BCRA registered today a net purchase balance of US$60 million, and adds 7 positive wheels in the MULC
The operators had attributed the large purchase of that day to the fact that the entry into force of renewed restrictions for access to foreign currency operations and the need for financial institutions to readapt all operating systems resulted in a scenario with little demand, which allowed the BCRA to absorb a significant surplus of foreign currency.
In this sense, the operator Gustavo Quintanafrom Pr Cambios, said that this Monday also observed “a scenario of greatly diminished demand, and the BCRA was able to score the seventh consecutive round with balances in favor due to its regulation activity.”
“Without significant changes in the local scenario, which have not yet reflected the consequences of the new measures released over the weekend, the BCRA manages for now to avoid further loss of reserves and takes advantage of the results of the plan to increase exports to display a better result than those registered at the beginning of the month”, he highlighted.
in tune, Salvador Vitelli, A specialist in finance and agribusiness, said that due to the new restrictions it was to be expected that “there could be a decrease in terms of import demand.” But he foresees that “To the extent that it is reactivated and the BCRA continues with the same flow of payments, it is likely that we will see it dispose of a greater amount of the currencies bought by the agricultural dollar”.
Reserves: at critical level
The BCRA has accumulated net sales so far in May for an amount of around US$93 million, and adds a negative result for the year of slightly more than US$3,000 million.
The consultant Ecolatina He remarked that with the recent buying spree “although the slowdown in the drain of foreign currency is good news in the margin, it should not be overlooked that it was achieved by placing more obstacles on the demand for foreign currency, even in a month in which dollars tend to accumulate from the thick harvest”.
Net reserves are already negative at around $1.4bn
Ecolatina pointed out that despite the accumulated net purchases in the last rounds, international reserves continued their downward trend. According to his estimates, net reserves are “in negative territory for more than US$1.3 billion.”
meanwhile, in Eco Go calculate that the stock of net reserves they are negative by US$1,468 million.
Agro dollar: at a weak pace
The favorable balance on Monday also contributed to the fact that the field settled through the agro-currency dollar for US$78.68 million, which shows a slower pace compared to US$94.49 million on Friday.
Thus, the amount settled one month after the first operations began under this scheme is about US$2,554 million, a value that barely reaches half the objective of US$5,000 million that the Government intended to achieve with the soybean dollar 3 which concludes, as originally announced, at the end of this month.
Calves He maintained that the objective seems distant: “If we wanted to think that the estimate to be settled (US$5,000) will be met, US$244 per day should be settled on average of what is left for May.” And he predicted that “in June if they do not offer a (better) differential exchange rate, it is likely that we will see the BCRA seller.”
In Invest in Stock Market (IEB) evaluated that “one of the biggest obstacles to the program was the diminishing incentives that exporters had as the gap between the official exchange rate and the preferential exchange rate offered by $300 narrowed, while on the other hand there is the high gap with respect to financial dollars and the growing expectations of devaluation”.
In the market they anticipate that in June there should be an improvement in the agricultural dollar if the BCRA wants to accumulate reserves
According to his calculations, the net liquid reserves, which are arrived at by subtracting gold and SDRs “are already at -u$s6.800 million”, for which they considered that “if changes are not seen in the scheme (of the agricultural dollar) that produce new incentives and thus increase the offer, the program does not seem to improve the prospects.”
In addition, Ecolatina indicated that the weak performance in the third edition of the soybean dollar is due to “a set of factors, both logistical (port stoppage, delay in harvesting and planting) and incentives (political rumors, increase in the exchange rate gap, drop in the international soybean price and devaluation expectations).
“For this reason, and while new regional economies have been included in the program, we do not rule out that the sector will meet again with the authorities to agree on modifications in the mechanism that encourage greater liquidation.”
of equal vision, Sebastian Menescaldi, director of Eco Go, evaluated that the measures announced over the weekend do not reverse expectations due to the shortage of foreign currency. And he emphasized that for that, “the only thing that matters is collecting dollars” for which he anticipates that in June “they will have to implement a different agricultural dollar, they will have to put another value on it.”
