The Russian Ministry of Defense justified the change with an “expansion of tasks” and the “need” for “closer interaction” between the troops and spoke of an “increase in the management level of the special operations”. Even after the reconstruction, the Kremlin is sticking to the goals of the invasion. The four annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson should be taken in full, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Chief of Staff Gerassimov was actually heavily criticized at the beginning of the war, because the – probably exaggerated – expectations of a quick subjugation of the Ukraine could not be fulfilled and strategic mistakes were piling up. Gerasimov is considered a confidante of Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, but the new job seems anything but a promotion.
difficult tasks
Analysts see him facing practically unsolvable tasks: the Russian army’s obvious supply problem with ammunition can hardly be solved in the short term, nor can the recruitment of well-trained soldiers. At the same time, military successes are expected, above all from President Vladimir Putin. On the anniversary of the invasion at the end of February, Putin wanted to be sure of some success, writes ex-Australian general and military analyst Mick Ryan.
Success stories expected for the anniversary
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War writes that there is speculation about a spring offensive, which could most likely take place in northeastern Ukraine, i.e. in the Kharkiv region. There, the Russian army had to accept surprising losses of territory in the autumn. Conversely, Russia must also reckon with a new counter-offensive by the Ukrainian troops, possibly with new and more powerful western weapon systems.
Some experts even go so far as to say that if Russia loses the entire war, Gerasimov will be the ultimate scapegoat. In any case, the step is not a promotion for Gerrasimov, writes the Russia analyst Mark Galeotti.
Signal to hardliners
Observers agree that Putin’s decision was a political one, which, according to the Institute for the Study of War, is intended to signal “that the Kremlin is sticking to the traditional power structures of the Russian Defense Ministry and that Putin is ready to wage a long war in Ukraine.” . The message is aimed on the one hand at the West, but on the other hand at the critics at home, especially at the hard-liners such as the military bloggers and the group of “siloviki”. This is the name of the influential circle of military and secret service people who are calling for an even tougher course.
Predecessor responsible for hard course
The decision in favor of Gerasimov becomes understandable when looking at his predecessor Sergei Surovikin, who was demoted to one of three deputy commanders. Surovikin was only appointed commander of troops in Ukraine in October to improve the situation of the Russian army in the face of setbacks from Ukrainian offensives.
The bombardment of Ukraine’s infrastructure, which threatened the country’s electricity supply, was seen as the signature of the air force general who earned his reputation as “General Armageddon” by attacking civilian targets in Syria. Actually, the situation of the Russian troops in Ukraine had stabilized somewhat under his leadership.
Darling of the hardliners – and of the Wagner boss
Although he had to command the retreat from Kherson in the south, this was generally seen as a result of the mistakes of his predecessors. He is considered one of Russia’s toughest and most ruthless generals, making him a firm darling of Russian military bloggers, who are calling for the Kremlin to take far tougher action in Ukraine.
And he was repeatedly praised by the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary force, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in recent weeks has increasingly focused on his own agenda while at the same time increasingly criticizing the warfare of the Russian Ministry of Defense since the end of 2022.
Open contradictions
The Institute for the Study of War suspects that Prigozhin, now one of the most important figures in the siloviki faction, is using the success reports – whether they are confirmed or even just fabricated – to promote his group as the only Russian force in Ukraine , which is able to achieve tangible success. The Russian state media celebrated the first military successes in a long time, the advance on the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar, which had been shelled for months.
On Tuesday evening, Prigozhin announced the complete conquest of the embattled town of Soledar, stressing that only his troops were responsible for the success.
The Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin disagreed a few hours later. The site is not fully captured and regular Russian troops are also involved in the fighting: airborne troops have blocked the northern and southern parts of Soledar, and the Russian Air Force is bombing Ukrainian positions.
Also promoted to deposed commander
It remains to be seen how Prigozhin will react to the contradictions that have now been publicly voiced and the appointment of Gerasimov. Experts expect the visible cracks within the Russian military apparatus to increase. A personnel decision made on Tuesday was sharply criticized in Russia: General Alexander Lapin was appointed chief of staff of the army troops. The promotion was surprising in that he commanded Army Group Center of the Russian troops in Ukraine until October. After Ukraine gained territory in the Kharkiv area, he was the focus of criticism and was immediately replaced.
sign of weakness?
For international experts, the picture is more solidified that the already cumbersome Russian command structure is becoming even more confusing – and the personnel changes look a bit like acts of desperation. Political scientist Abbas Galliamov commented: “Yesterday Lapin, today Gerasimov and Surovikin. All these reshuffles of the same people from one chair to the next, which take place at the height of hostilities, testify to everything possible – but not to the fact that “everything according to plan”.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reacted with derision to Gerasimov’s new role: “Every Russian general must have at least one opportunity to fail in Ukraine.
Some may be lucky enough to fail twice,” the official Twitter account said.
The Institute for the Study of War wrote that the Russian Ministry of Defense “appears to be using previously disgraced and unpopular general officers to fill other non-frontline command positions, suggesting that there is a systematic shortage of general officers better suited to those positions are suitable”.
