The BRICS summit could test the close relationship between Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa.Bild: imago images/ITAR-TASS / imago images
Analyse
Every ally counts. That’s probably what Russia thinks, which has been largely isolated since its war of aggression against Ukraine, which violated international law. Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer welcome as a state guest in many countries. On the contrary, most would have to arrest him on the spot.
Isolated head of state on the world stage: Vladimir Putin probably has only a few close allies.Image: AP / Geert Vanden Wijngaert
In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. Reason: His alleged joint responsibility for the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Russia. The member states of the International Criminal Court are thus obliged to arrest Putin.
That leads South Africa into a “true dilemma,” says Gregor Jaecke when asked by watson. As head of the South African foreign office of the CDU-affiliated Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation, he explains why the country is trying to get closer to Russia and why it could burn its fingers.
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South Africa is in the Putin squeeze
The fact is: South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Should Putin decide to set foot on South African soil, he would have to be arrested on the spot. And such a scenario is imminent.
In August, the economic summit of the BRICS countries will take place in the South African coastal city of Durban. According to Jaecke, this puts South Africa in a tight spot – the country could even plunge into a “constitutional crisis”.
What are the BRICS countries?
The abbreviation stands for the former emerging countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which are characterized by high economic growth.
According to the expert, an arrest of the Russian President on South African soil is almost impossible. Then: The Kremlin has a good relationship with the African National Congress (ANC). The ANC is considered the party of South African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela.
ANC, Nelson Mandela, apartheid – an overview
Since the democratic elections in South Africa in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has guided the country’s political life. Its most famous member was Nelson Mandela, who fought apartheid (racial segregation).
In general, Putin’s influence is growing in Africa – whether in Mali, Burkina Faso and, of course, at the southern tip of the African continent, in South Africa. At the same time, a pro-Russian stance is gaining ground. In the case of South Africa, according to Jaecke, this is partly historical.
African National Congress (ANC) is pro-Kremlin
The expert explains that South African foreign policy is strongly influenced by ideology. The still close ties to the former USSR play a particularly important role here – due to the support given to anti-apartheid activists at the time. As a side note, Jaecke adds:
“The fact that a large number of former liberation fighters were trained in Odessa – that is, on the territory of today’s Ukraine – is completely ignored.”
South African activist Nelson Mandela fought with the ANC against apartheid in the country.Bild: imago images/ZUMA Wire / ZUMA Wire
Jaecke further explains: Political observers are also said to be speculating about the extent to which large donations to the ANC by a Russian oligarch close to the Kremlin will influence the ruling party’s positioning on the war in Ukraine.
According to Jaecke, there are many points that show: The ANC government is pursuing anti-Western and pro-Russia policies. He gives four examples:
- South Africa abstained from the recent resolution on increased cooperation between the UN and the Council of Europe, which also condemned Russia’s aggression. And this contrary to the BRICS partners China, India and Brazil, who agreed to the resolution.
- The open criticism of the “aggressive” NATO by the South African government as the “trigger” for the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
- The participation of the South African defense minister at a military conference in Moscow in August 2022.
- During the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Pretoria at the end of January, the South African Foreign Minister declared that criticism of Russia was “infantile” – due to the arms deliveries from the West that had taken place so far.
According to Jaecke, South Africa shows more understanding for the Russian side than for the Ukrainian side. Whoever is the aggressor in this war is ignored. He says:
“The ten-day naval maneuvers off the coast of South Africa, carried out jointly with Russia and China – which included the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – must at this point not only be seen as irreverent, but also as a clearly anti-Western position.”
South Africa shows little support for Ukraine
The official position of the South African government is a policy of neutrality, explains the expert. Means: Russia is not officially supported, but advocates a peaceful settlement of the war through mediation and negotiation.
South Africa reportedly wants to remain neutral in the war in Ukraine.Image: AP / LIBKOS
It should be noted that the South African government does not refer to Ukraine’s territorial integrity or even to compliance with international law in this context. In addition, according to Jaecke, there has not yet been any significant mediation attempt by Pretoria. Although it is always emphasized that one wants to take on an intermediary role.
But these words are now followed by contradictory actions: sea”SpiegelUS Ambassador Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of supplying Russia with arms and ammunition for the war in Ukraine.
South Africa: Instead of a mediator, it is now said to be a weapons supplier for Russia
The US is “certain” that weapons and ammunition were loaded onto a Russian freighter at a naval base near Cape Town in early December. “The South African government has rejected this serious suspicion and announced an independent investigation,” explains Jaecke.
A Russian freighter is said to have been loaded with weapons and ammunition in Cape Town.Bild: imago / Dmitry Makeev
Supplying the aggressor with arms would further deepen the already existing rift between the West and South Africa. According to the expert, however, there is also the possibility that the alleged arms delivery to Russia took place without the official knowledge of the South African government. And that, mind you, at a military port.
“If this scenario were to materialize, it would be a worrying one Evidence of the South African government’s progressive loss of control over sensitive areas of its power monopoly” says Jacke.
One of many: The South African military port near Simonstown.Bild: imago / Christine Roth
US Ambassador Brigety has since apologized to the South African government for his allegations. Nevertheless, the West apparently wants to put pressure on the country. “The aim of this is to persuade the government to return to a course of ‘true neutrality’ and move away from Moscow,” says Jaecke.
And how will South Africa get out of the dilemma if Putin wants to visit the country for the BRICS summit in August?
South Africa remains some options
According to Jaecke, South Africa could withdraw from the Criminal Court’s statute before then. According to him, this was even publicly announced by the ANC, but a short time later it was declared a “communication error” and withdrawn.
Legally, the exit would only take effect after a period of twelve months, explains Jaecke. Another solution would have to be found before the summit in August. And that could be called “digital”. Accordingly, South Africa has the option of simply having the entire event take place online.
In 2022, the BRICS summit in China took place online due to strict corona measures. Bild: dpa / Yin Gang
“Of course, it would also be conceivable that only Putin would be connected online,” says Jaecke. But whether he would like that is another question.
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