Hamburg.
Peace researcher Ursula Schröder praises Scholz for his careful communication with Ukraine. But he had to explain the “turning point in time”.
Ursula Schröder is one of the most renowned peace researchers in Germany – and she doesn’t believe that the war in Ukraine will be over soon, on the contrary: “Only 20 percent of all wars end with the direct victory of one of the two parties, all the others end either through negotiations or not at all,” she says Scientific Director of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, who is a guest in this episode of the “Scholz Update”. “The last scenario does not seem improbable to me for the war in Ukraine either. It could morph into a conflict that is ongoing, with greater or lesser intensity, along a perpetual line of conflict between Ukraine and Russia.”
On the communication of the federal government in times of war says Schroeder: “You have to be very careful not to make any communicative mistakes, that you don’t suddenly slip out a thoughtless statement. Wartime political communication has multiple publics to consider, which is what makes it so complicated. Scholz not only speaks to his citizens, but also to the Russian and European public.” And sometimes it really could be better not to say anything: “There are definitely areas in foreign policy where secrets are at stake, and then you can do that neither spread. Sometimes no public information and media debate is better.”
Ursula Schröder: Russia analyzes Scholz’s potential for aggression
you hold the careful communication of the Federal Chancellor in the direction of Russia is correct “to signal that Germany has no aggressive intentions towards Russia and will not have any in the future either. I think repeating that over and over again is fundamentally correct behavior.” You have to be aware that the other side would analyze very precisely what potential for aggression lies behind certain terms and statements: “Both sides have to understand well what the other side is saying , so that the war does not escalate due to communicative misunderstandings.”
At the same time, the Chancellor must explain well what the goal of his turning point policy is: “There is still room for improvement,” says Ursula Schröder. “It has not yet become clear what the political vision is behind the turning point.” The discussion is too detailed for her, the citizens have a right to know how the federal government is dealing with the diverse, intertwined crises of our time: “Where is the great transformation that Olaf Scholz announced?” We have a time ahead of us in which we would have to learn to deal with both uncertainty and uncertainty, says the scientist. “In the past 80 years there has not been such a concentration of crises and catastrophes as we are currently experiencing. The big question is how to explain to citizens what the government’s plan is for this. And unfortunately we can no longer look into the past to understand how things will continue.”
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