According to security expert Claudia Major, Ukraine’s expected spring offensive in the war against Russia will be decisive for further Western support.
“If it succeeds and Ukraine can show that it can liberate territory, then it will be easier for Western countries to explain why this very cost-intensive support is worthwhile,” said the head of the Security Policy research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). on Friday in the ZDF morning magazine.
In the morning, the defense ministers of the so-called Ukraine Contact Group will meet at the US Ramstein Air Force Base in Rhineland-Palatinate. They want to take stock of the country’s military support. It is also a question of whether the previous arms deliveries are sufficient for the spring offensive planned by Kiev.
Regarding acceptance of further arms shipments, Major pointed to elections in key support countries in the coming years, including the US and UK, as well as several European countries. “Of course, the question arises: is it worth it in the long term, can they even do it?”.
Ukraine consumes more ammunition than the West can currently produce. Therefore, it is important to both supply ammunition and “start up” production. Overall, Ukraine needs “more of everything – but in the long term and systematically”, so that Ukraine can also plan.
Major also welcomed the announcement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about talks about Ukraine’s accession to the military alliance at the upcoming alliance summit in July, but considers this to be “a highly complex issue” and not feasible in the short term. “It’s guaranteed not to happen in times of war.” According to her, the topic belongs “on the agenda”, especially in view of the different attitudes within NATO.
The expert, on the other hand, sees little chance for peace negotiations. “There is no interest in peace talks from the Russian side. Unfortunately, they won’t take place for that long,” said Major.
Moscow overrates mud samples
With a view to the forthcoming spring offensive, Russia is apparently trying to boost morale among its own troops. According to British military experts, Russian online media deliberately overestimated the importance of ground conditions. That’s according to the UK MoD’s daily intelligence update on the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine on Friday.
Accordingly, mud slows down military operations on both sides. “The soil conditions are likely to improve in the coming weeks,” said the British side. A major constraint on off-road maneuverability is likely to be the risk of landmines. (AFP/dpa)
