El Salvador, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela, in temporal order, are the countries that plan to call their electors to the polls to choose their leaders – in some, also their legislative and municipal authorities -, and also the future and regional stability.
Haiti, in which a Council has been appointed to carry out the process, has not yet set the date for the elections.
Political observers consider that the presidential elections in these seven countries, four of them with autocratic left-wing governments, represent a crucial opportunity for the recovery of freedoms and democracy, in light of the electoral results in the recent elections in Ecuador and Argentina. in 2023. However, the strong political polarization, economic difficulties and social pressures make any prediction difficult.
El Salvador, what is at stake?
The presidential elections in El Salvador, a Central American country of 6.36 million inhabitants, will be held on February 4, 2024, according to the date set by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The favorite is President Nayib Bukele Ortez, who received authorization from the Supreme Court to seek reelection for another five years and registered as a candidate, even though he is prohibited by the Salvadoran Constitution.
The accusations of disrespect for the separation of powers, violations of the constitutional text and human rights for prolonging the state of emergency to put an end to the gangs, do not stop Bukele, who enjoys 93% of the electorate’s voting intention, according to the most recent CID Gallup poll. There he appears well above the candidates Joel Sánchez of the right-wing Socialist Republican Alliance party and Manuel Flores of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, with 3% and 2% respectively.
However, Salvadoran political observers fear that Bukele, a politician and businessman who emerged from the left and became center-left, could lead the country into autocracy by remaining in power.
Panama, 10 candidates
On May 5, 2024, Panama will hold the general elections and 10 candidates for the presidency, of the most varied political tendency and occupations; They will be measured in a single round to replace the leftist Laurentino Cortizo Cohén, according to the Electoral Tribunal. The Constitution prevents immediate re-election.
Among the candidates are former presidents Ricardo Martinelli, (right) and Martín Torrijos (center-right), who concentrate the preferences. Martinelli appears with up to 44% popularity in the polls, according to the Panamanian press, over his opponent, also former president Martín Torrijos (10%).
However, Martinelli’s final participation is uncertain because he was sentenced to almost 11 years in prison, convicted of money laundering, among others. affair, so several candidates are seeking an alliance that prevents the former president from governing again. Meanwhile, Panamanians are protesting against a law that establishes the contract between Minera Panamá and the State, according to the press. Despite this, the candidate has asked to bring forward the elections and even include a fifth ballot in the general elections to consult on “an original constituent.”
Dominican Republic
On May 19, 2024, the Dominican Republic will have elections to choose a new president among nine candidates, after four years in which President Luis Abinader, a businessman from the center-left PRIM party, promoted changes “between liberals and social democrats,” according to publications from that country.
Among the four most important candidates is Abinader himself, who does not hide his interest in a second term and would compete with Abel Martínez, with the Dominican Liberation party, and former presidents Leonel Fernández, with Fuerza del Pueblo; and Miguel Vargas Maldonado, with the PRD.
If no candidate wins with the necessary advantage, the runoff would proceed on June 30, 2024 and whoever triumphs in the presidential elections will have to apply urgent government policies against citizen insecurity, the high cost of living and unemployment, which are the three most pressing problems in the country, according to the Gallup-RCCMedia poll.
Mexico, women for the presidency
Considered a political milestone, on June 2, 2024, the Mexican electoral population will choose between two women who will occupy the presidency of the country, one of the most populated, dangerous and where machismo prevails the most in Latin America, and they will do so in a few general elections that will allow all levels of national government to be renewed.
In the elections, Senator only to Mexicans, but also to the political landscape of Latin America.
Sheinbaum, a favorite of López Obrador and who has the support of the Green Party and the Labor Party, represents exacerbated ‘Lopezobradorism’, as can be seen from her statements in recent public appearances. “We are not going to stop this peaceful revolution. We have to build the second floor of the Fourth Transformation,” he noted. He Economistfrom Mexico, which refers to the social plan offered by López Obrador that he has not managed to comply with.
Uruguay, between the ruling party and the left
The presidential elections along with the parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 27, 2024, when Uruguayans must exercise mandatory suffrage and elect the new president among five candidates who have been nominated by party alliances. If they do not reach the absolute majority of votes to become president, they will have to go to a second round according to the law, which would take place on November 24 of that year.
Álvaro Delgado, secretary of the Presidency occupied by Luis Lacalle Pou, and supposed favorite of the National Party and the government coalition, disputes the preferences with the other candidates of the left-wing opposition alliance, in a changing political climate. Among these is the mayor of Canelones, Yamandú Orsi, a history professor, who has the support of the Popular Participation Movement (MPP), the sector of the left historically led by former president José Mujica, and who publicly assumes radical positions.
However, 85% of Uruguayans “would have their vote directed,” according to publications.
Venezuela, to the rescue of democracy
In the midst of constant internal political tension and global expectation, Venezuela is preparing to hold elections during the second half of 2023, as established by law, although historically they have been held in the first days of December every six years.
María Corina Machado, chosen as the opposition candidate in crowded primaries and illegally disqualified by the regime, would face the official candidate Nicolás Maduro – to date – considered illegitimate after taking over the presidency unconstitutionally for the second time in 2018 and responsible for the humanitarian crisis that began in 2015.
Machado leads all voting intention surveys, with a marked difference over Maduro. However, the holding of transparent elections is subject to the Barbados Accords, which were signed by delegates of the opposition and the government, with the presence of representation from the United States, which establishes the holding of free elections, as well as the annulment of the disqualification of three of the opposition candidates.
Haiti, pending elections
In the midst of the serious political, economic and social deterioration that seems insurmountable, Haitians are pressing to begin before the end of 2023 the long-awaited process of presidential elections, which have not been held since 2016, when Jovenel Moïse, who was assassinated a year ago, assumed power. two years.
Haiti’s Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has since taken over the government and has promised to give back to the inhabitants the right to choose the new president who will direct the country’s destiny until 2028.
In February 2023, Henry formally appointed the High Transitional Council, chaired by 83-year-old politician Mirlande Manigat, to elect members of a provisional electoral council tasked with planning the country’s general elections. However, the High Council is only in the process of expanding, while Haiti continues without democratically elected institutions and without a certain date for the elections.
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Source: With information from France24.com, LaRepublica.co, accent.com, cipher.com.uy, Diario Las Américas editorial staff
