2023 will be the year of oil or gold
Over the last two years between the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the trend in commodities has been quite eventful. In particular, oil has had major moves both up and down. We recall, in fact, that in the first half of 2020 the price of crude oil was even marked with negative prices. Subsequently, a long upward movement lasted two years which led to a maximum in the $120 area. Gold, on the other hand, performed more evenly. Should you buy gold or oil?
The comparison between the performance of gold and that of the dollar assuming the starting value of 100 for both at the beginning of 2020 is shown in the following graph.
Comparison between the performance of gold and that of the dollar assuming the starting value of 100 for both at the beginning of 2020
The indications of the graphic analysis on gold
L’gold it closed the session of 13 January with an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous session, at 1,921.7 dollars. The week, on the other hand, closed with an increase of 2.78%.
Averages firmly crossed upwards on gold – projections of the stock market
From November 2022 onwards, gold has shot up passing in just over two months from the $1,650 area to the $1,950 area. Particularly, 2023 started in the best way with four consecutive weeks on the rise as they have not seen since August 2022. A return to the highs of 2020 in the $2,200 areatherefore, it could be very likely.
Sui reasons why 2023 could be a good year for gold we have already reported in detail in a previous article. Here we limit ourselves to recalling that, although there are no solid statistical indications, we can state the following
- Gold has performed well in recessions;
- Gold has delivered strong returns after the dollar index peaks;
- Stagflation leads to positive returns for gold investors.
The indications of the graphic analysis on oil
The petrolium it closed the January 13 session at $79.86, up 1.88% on the previous session. The week closed with an increase of 8.26% compared to the previous weekly closing.
The medium-long trend on oil is still bearish
Despite a weekly upside of more than 8%, the bulls have not yet overcome the medium to long-term downtrend. As can be seen from the graph, in fact, thehe weekly bar developed within the previous one and, therefore, did not add any information or change the current bearish trend. Only a weekly close above $81.50 could give the bullish turn for oil.
Otherwise, the descent would continue and could accelerate in the event of a weekly close below $72.46.
Should you buy gold or oil?
Considering the world geopolitical situation, the economic scenario that could go towards a recession and the price chart we can see that gold is more likely to do better than oil during 2023.
