For months there has been fighting in Donetsk Oblast over the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar. Neither are considered decisive for the war, the strategic importance has already been doubted by the Russian side. Nevertheless, Ukraine and Russia are fighting bitterly for the area, with an enormous toll in blood.
On Wednesday even Putin described the situation in the illegally annexed areas as “difficult”. “Fighting is ongoing in some areas,” Putin said in a meeting with government officials. “But all this is no reason to take a break and postpone the most pressing issues.” Putin instructed the Russian cabinet to draw up a plan for the development of the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the coming months – for example with a view to infrastructure and social services.
Economist: Putin is running out of money
Russia still has enough resources to improve the lives of people in these regions, Putin said.
Additional income would allow Russia to complete all tasks. However, Sergej Gurijew, Russian economist and political adviser, doubted that on Wednesday in an interview with Ö1.
Years of preparation for possible sanctions and skilful policies by the Russian central bank prevented the economy from collapsing last year, according to Guriyev. But the sanctions are now taking effect. “When the West finally imposed the oil sanctions in December, we immediately saw a big effect on the national budget. In December alone, the deficit was four trillion rubles, the equivalent of around 55 billion euros,” said Guriev.
Putin will slowly run out of money for his war, for his mercenary troops and Iranian drones. “My prognosis is that the war will continue, but with lower oil revenues Putin can no longer maintain the intensity of the war.”
Conflicting information about Soledar
For the time being, however, the next Russian goal is likely to be the capture of the entire eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In Donetsk, the mercenaries of the Wagner troupe are highly active. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin recently reported the capture of the salt-mining town of Soledar. A group of Ukrainian soldiers was still surrounded in the center of the village. The Kremlin did not officially confirm the intake, but spoke of a “positive dynamic”.
Kyiv, in turn, denied the loss of the city, saying it was a propaganda maneuver, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his video address on Wednesday. “The front in the Donetsk region is holding,” he said. “Fighting continues and we are doing everything we can to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses.” With claims of perceived successes, Russia tried to deceive its population and “support mobilization”. In addition, the “proponents of aggression” should be given further hope.
Bachmut as the actual goal
But the British Ministry of Defense had previously announced that the Russian army and Wagner Group mercenaries were now likely to have most of Soledar under control after the raids of the past four days. The city with a population of 10,000 in the industrial region of Donbas is only a few kilometers away from Bakhmut.
Russia’s attack on Soledar is most likely an attempt to encircle Bakhmut from the north and cut off Ukrainian lines of communication, the UK MoD said in its daily intelligence briefing.
Huge tunnel system
Fighting in Soledar has focused on approaches to abandoned salt mines that run beneath the area and are said to total some 200 kilometers in length. “Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used to advance behind their lines,” it said.
It was precisely with this tunnel system that Wagner boss Prigozhin recently justified the offensive in the region that has been ongoing since the beginning of August of the previous year: “The icing on the cake is the mine system of Soledar and Bakhmut, which is actually a network of underground cities,” Prigozhin wrote on Telegram.
Ukraine: Battle for Soledar
Russian mercenaries report taking the embattled town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine. The infamous Wagner squad is currently on duty for Moscow in eastern Ukraine. However, Kyiv denies this, and the Kremlin has not yet confirmed the report.
“Not only can it accommodate a large group of people at a depth of 80 to 100 meters, but tanks and armored personnel carriers can also move in it.” He also claimed that weapons had been stored in the tunnels since World War I. The view is rather doubted. The disused tunnels of the salt mine used to be a destination for excursions, and concerts were even held in an underground hall.
US officials said Prigozhin wanted to take control of the region’s salt and gypsum mines for commercial reasons. The Wagner group had already been accused of linking military and economic interests in other regions, such as Africa.
Success is primarily symbolic
The Russian military leadership, in turn, could use a possible capture of Bakhmut as the first military success for a long time for propaganda. And it would be at least a small step closer to bringing the entire Donetsk Oblast under Russian control. But there is still the conurbation between Slowjansk and Kramatorsk, which will certainly be defended even more doggedly by the Ukrainian army.
