AI writes entire lectures within a few seconds, as well as creative advertising texts and complicated project concepts – technological progress in AI seems to have progressed rapidly in recent months. At the same time, more and more people are asking themselves whether their work could soon be taken over by digital automation.
A March report by investment firm Goldman Sachs estimated that artificial intelligence could take over a quarter of all the work currently done by humans. In the European Union and the US, the report goes on to say, 300 million jobs could be lost to automation.
Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger
has been involved in Internet privacy for more than 20 years and has written several books on the societal consequences of using big data. He has been a member of the digital council of the German federal government since 2018.
“Revolution of Decisions”
Mayer-Schönberger does not share the concern that the increased use of AI could soon cause some kind of mass unemployment. As early as 2021 he wrote in the book “Framers” about why humans will never be “superfluous” either through artificial intelligence or through robotics. Similar to the time of the industrial revolution around 150 years ago, mankind is now facing a far-reaching reorganization.
“There is no doubt that AI, as a powerful technical tool, can replace human decision-making in the future, just as the steam engine once partially replaced human effort. But at the end of the industrial revolution there were more professions than at the beginning, only the content of the professions was completely different. Manual work was increasingly being replaced by organizational and decision-making work. What we are now seeing with AI is that some of the decision-making work can also be replaced,” says Mayer-Schönberger. He speaks of a “revolution of decisions” that society is already going through.
“End for classic desk jobs”
This applies above all to classic “desk jobs” in middle management, administration or, for example, in the area of administrative work. Jobs that were considered relatively safe in the past decades can now be taken over and carried out by AI based on millions of empirical values - such as in accounting, data processing, banking or insurance. Mayer-Schönberger emphasizes that society is facing major challenges.
The German economist Jens Südekum also confirmed this recently in an interview with ARD. For Südekum, however, increased use of AI in these occupational fields does not mean that those people who are currently still doing these jobs would become unemployed as a result. Rather, that employees will be relieved of tedious tasks in the future and therefore have more time for activities where people are indispensable.
Scientists calculate “risk index”
A team of researchers from Switzerland led by AI expert Dario Floreano has also been working on which professional fields could be replaced by automatisms in the future Automation Risk Index (ARI) calculated.
The researchers examined 976 occupations and rated them using their index. An ARI of 1 means that a machine will surpass humans in all required skills in the future, while an ARI of 0 means that robotic technologies cannot replace a single required human skill.
AI as a remedy for labor shortages?
In addition to all the fears in the working world that they will be replaced by AI, there is also a great opportunity to upgrade, reorient and ultimately make social professions, such as nursing, education or mental health, more attractive, says Mayer-Schönberger.
“Because the content of the work changes, it also requires a change in our minds. In the industrial revolution, humanity responded by creating a huge boom in the service sector. Today we are talking about the fact that we have a major shortage of skilled workers in certain professions. To a certain extent, AI will help us to overcome this deficiency,” predicts the scientist.
According to the Ministry of Health in Austria, up to 6,700 additional nursing staff will be needed annually by 2030 due to demographic developments.
Human services irreplaceable
Mayer-Schönberger is certain that the AI can only provide support with new technology, but cannot replace anyone: “All human services will continue to exist. Even those professions in which creativity plays an important role cannot simply be replaced by AI, such as in the trades, where new and individual ideas are required. But if that is the future focus of human work, it requires a change in our society, because then we have to align our educational system and our thought patterns with it.”
“In the future it will be about the social dimension”
The crucial question for the scientist is not: Will there be fewer or more jobs due to AI? The Oxford professor asks much more the question: How will jobs change in the future? “And how can we help people to cope with and help shape these changes? In the future, it will be about supporting your own creativity, independence and social skills. It’s about the social dimension and the creative dimension, and not about skills like pure intelligence or memory.”
