Nearly 35,000 El Pasoans cast early votes for Saturday’s election, a record turnout for an off-year election.
More than 33,000 of voters live in the El Paso city limits, which means they are eligible to vote on 11 proposed amendments to the City Charter, including Proposition K. Those ballots were cast during the period early voting from April 24 to May 2.
Proposition K requires city government to accelerate the path away from fossil fuels.
The composition of early voting suggests Proposition K is unlikely to pass, barring an unusual surge in Election Day voting.
Slightly less than half of the early voters in the City Charter election were over the age of 65, even though seniors make up just 21 percent of the city’s registered voters, a survey showed. El Paso Matters voter analysis.
Only 5 percent of early voters were under the age of 30, though they make up 22 percent of the city’s registered voters.
The age composition of the electorate could play a key role in the outcome of Proposition K, the amendment to the Climate Charter. People under the age of 30 are more than twice as likely as those over the age of 65 to support phasing out fossil fuel use over time to fully rely on renewable energy resources, according to a national survey.
“I don’t see how Proposition K passes without a huge increase in young voters,” former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a supporter of the Climate Charter, said last weekend in an El Paso Matters op-ed.
For the past week, Sunrise Movement volunteers, who worked to put Prop K on the ballot, have been using text messages and social media to get young people to vote.
“It is our time to make sure El Paso is part of the solution to climate change, protect the environment for future generations, and stop the long history of corporations poisoning our air and water,” states the mass text message sent by Sunrise on Tuesday. “Will you join us in voting for Prop K?”
Opponents of Proposition K, buoyed by more than $1 million in contributions, continued to reach voters through television and radio ads, billboards, text messages, and other means.
Despite the social media bombardment by proponents, other early voting signs point to trouble for Proposition K.
The 10 highest-turnout precincts, representing 14 percent of all votes cast in early voting in the city limits, voted against a 2022 city bond issue to provide $5.2 million for modest efforts to study renewable energy and building efficiency. The bond issue narrowly missed the entire city.
Most of the precincts with the highest turnout were more Republican leaning than El Paso as a whole.
In seven of the 10 constituencies with the most early voters, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott polled more than 40 percent of the vote in his 2022 re-election victory over O’Rourke. Abbott won 35 percent of the countywide vote.
Voters have one more chance to cast their vote. Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm Saturday at numerous polling places in El Paso.
In recent elections in El Paso, two-thirds or more of all votes were cast early.
In addition to the proposed City Charter, voters in the El Paso, Socorro, Ysleta and Anthony school districts are electing board members. Anthony, Horizon City and San Elizario will also have municipal elections.
The nearly 35,000 votes cast is the highest-ever early voting total for an off-year election in El Paso, surpassing the 32,000 cast in the 2001 mayoral runoff when Ray Caballero defeated Larry Francis.
In 2021, the last election out of the year, only about 4,900 people cast early ballots.
