TAIPEI.- The elections in Taiwan, scheduled for January 13, are taking place in a climate of tension marked by the possibility of an invasion by China and the persistence of respiratory viruses, including COVID-19. This environment discursively dominates the electoral campaign, where uncertainty about the future of the island has been the protagonist.
Despite the normality and progress perceived in Taiwanese cities, with spontaneous friendliness towards foreigners and outstanding East-West integration, the situation is about to change. The Ministry of Defense declared that the Taiwanese army remains on constant alert for any movement of the Chinese navy, with rigorous monitoring of the national sea and airspace.
According to review Cuban DiaryIn recent weeks, Chinese fighters and vessels have made daily tours around the island, generating concern. The question of survival as a country dominates the political debate, evidenced in the only televised presidential debate. Current Vice President William Lai of the poll-favorite Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emphasized Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence, accusing his opponent, Hou Yu-Ih of the Kuomintang (KMT), of being “pro Beijing”.
The conflict also involves the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), led by Ko Wen-je, already exiles from Hong Kong who warn of the consequences of Chinese communism, recalling the situation in the former British colony.
Amid New Year messages, President Tsai Ing-wen highlighted the commitment to maintaining the status quo and safeguarding democracy and peace in Taiwan. In contrast, China’s ruler Xi Jinping reaffirmed the promise of reunification, raising tensions.
A recent survey shows that almost half of the island’s inhabitants want independence, while another percentage prefers to maintain the status quo or seek reunification with China.
Taiwan conflict is momentous
Experts consider the conflict to be momentous not only for global democracy but also for the economy and trade, especially considering Taiwan’s role in the production of advanced semiconductors. They warn of potential catastrophic economic consequences if China invades the island and hampers the chip supply chain.
In this context, the possibility of war is presented as a situation where everyone would lose. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) simulated various scenarios, in most of which the United States, Taiwan and Japan would defeat China, but at a high cost. The defensive action would have a significant negative impact on the US economy and global standing, while China would also face considerable losses.
In this sense, experts such as Francisco Pérez Expósito, professor emeritus at Tamkang University, advocate addressing the conflict by strengthening deterrence factors, promoting trust measures, and encouraging more contacts and cooperation between the parties involved.
Source: With information from Diario de Cuba
