Just a month after the sowing of the main winter cereal and fifth export item in Argentina begins, the lack of water and supplies generates alarm
By Alejandra Groba
01/05/2023 – 13,40hs
Until now, the next planting of wheat was seen as the light at the end of the tunnel: after the increasingly dismal 2022/23 campaign, 2023/24 wheat appeared as the first major crop to be harvested under another government, with the consequent expectation of a elimination of withholdings and commercial interventions and with a unified exchange rate, which would bring the income of Argentine producers closer to those of their peers in the region. But for that hope, for a few weeks now, some red flags are beginning to surround it.
A bit of context: The meteorological phenomenon known as Niña, characterized by its scarcity of water, has been in Argentina for three consecutive years, but it is in this last campaign that it is showing its devastating potential. It started with the winter crops that were sown last year and harvested this summer: only 12.4 million tons of wheat (40% less than projected) and 3.8 million tons of barley (30% less) were obtained. , according to data from the Grain Exchange.
Now the so-called “gross harvest” is being raised, which is essential for the country’s coffers, and the results worsen every week: according to the same entity, 22.5 million tons of soybeans can be obtained, that is, 53% less than the 48 million estimated at the beginning of the campaign) and 36 million tons of corn, 28% less than the 50 million expected. It should be remembered that soybeans and corn are the complexes that occupy first and second place in the ranking of Argentine exports, and in 2022 they represented more than 39% of the currencies that entered the country.
New wheat, without floor
Now, with only a month to go before the window in which wheat can be sown begins, the conditions to do so are not given in most of the region. If you look at the current humidity maps and those of a year ago, prepared by the National Meteorological Service, INTA and the Faculty of Agronomy of the UBA, the lack of useful water for crops is obvious. Only part of the southeast of the province of Buenos Aires and part of this Entre Ríos have water, all the rest lack it.
In the call “core zone“, the one with the richest soils in the country, with its epicenter in Pergamino and which, in addition to the north of Buenos Aires, extends to the south of Santa Fe and southeast of Córdoba, the situation is the worst possible: “80% of the soils of the core region is in drought and water scarcity: they require at least 80 to 120 mm of water. One month after planting, there is a clear sign that wheat is falling despite the financial need that forces many to plant it anyway,” says a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
The report indicates that, for example, in General Pinto nThey need between 150 to 200 mm of rainand if they do not arrive the wheat area will be reduced by 60%, while in Marcos Juárez it would fall by 15% compared to last year. “The technicians recommend making decisions based on the useful water level of the soil,” says the BCR.
If the weather does not help, wheat planting will be affected in Argentina.
Will it rain enough in time?
For the BCR, the beginning of autumn marked a change of scenery in the drought, but with rains that “maintained an erratic and uneven behavior”, with masses of cold and dry air that prevailed and They did not allow the generation of humid conditions to provide the water that the region needs.
For the worse, the BCR maintains, the forecasts do not show the possibility of precipitation in the short term “that can recompose the statistical values of the first twenty days of April”, beyond the appearance of some disruptive event that compensates. And in the medium term, according to projections based on data from the Euro-Mediterranean Climate Center, there is only a 30% to 40% probability of having rainfall that exceeds the statistical averages in the core region during the May/July quarter, he said. the entity.
Assuming that the weather forecasts fail or are offset by extraordinary events, and the rains allow the necessary moisture to be recovered in the soils in the coming weeks, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts that producers will try to sow some 600,000 hectares more than last year. , until completing 6.7 million hectares, which would also be 4.7% more than the average of the last five campaigns. It remains then to cross your fingers, pray or practice some rain dance, in the absence of better chances.
