The losses are millionaire for the field and also the treasury / télam
The drought represents US$10.4 billion for soybean, wheat and corn producers. It is 2.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as estimated by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), which also warned that the producer’s numbers could worsen if the rainfall deficit continues and worsens.
The adjustment of 24 million tons in exports means that the projection of the net income of dollars from exports of beans, flour and soybean oil plus wheat and corn implies a net loss of income of dollars to the country for US$7,978 million, which is equivalent to 18% of the total foreign exchange income from agriculture in the previous 2021/22 campaign. The tax mass would have lost US$3,554 million to date as a consequence of the impact of the drought on wheat, soybean and corn crops.
The loss of net income from the producing sector is the difference between the producer’s net margin that it estimated at the time of sowing, with an average yield under normal climatic conditions, and that which is expected to date, as a consequence of the drought, They explained from the Rosario bag. The analysis takes into account both the loss of yields and the hectares that were planted and that cannot be harvested, and those that could not even be planted due to lack of moisture.
The estimated export of the main products of the wheat, soybean and corn complexes will fall by approximately 24 million tons.
Taking the net exports (that is, deducting the payment for temporary soybean imports, which are made in order to be processed in Argentina and export the by-products with the highest added value) forecast at the time of sowing, compared to those projected today With the current prices, it is estimated that close to US$8,000 million will stop entering the country, a drop of 18% compared to the total income of dollars from agriculture estimated for the 2021/22 campaign.
Although this figure is offset by the improvement in international prices as a result of the drop in the volume of supply due to the drought, this price effect is insufficient to offset the drop in the amount to be exported.
FISCAL IMPACT
With the million-dollar losses in the production sector, the estimate of tax collection is also cut. Only in concept of export rights, the State will stop receiving US$1,050 million in concept of external sales of the wheat, soybean and corn complexes, to which is added the loss of collection of another US$2,500 million in concept lower income taxes and other fees and contributions.
The yield of soybeans has already lost an average of 25% compared to the potential with which they were counting at the time of planning the 2022/23 sowings and corn 40% for the early varieties, to be harvested from March, and a 18% for the one that will be harvested from July of this year.
From the BCR they explained that only calculating the crops of wheat, soybeans and corn, the expected loss of profitability at the time of defining the crops is US$10,425 million, with the results that the wheat producer is facing today, soybeans and corn, thus leaving out the rest of the crops, as well as livestock activities. In wheat, with defined production, the loss of quintals with respect to the expectation at planting reached 63%.
