With the arrival of Lula Da Silvathe Argentine government sees not just a diplomatic opportunity but the occasion for a true political relaunch: it hopes that the presence of the Brazilian president will serve to change the axis of the debate and install an antinomy between democratic forces and forces sympathetic to authoritarian methods.
The strategy, which had already been hinted at during the Brazilian electoral campaign -in which the Government made a strong commitment to the victory of the PT- was finished outlining after thea coup attempt on January 8 in Brasilia. On that occasion, the government did not limit itself to expressing – as all the countries in the region did – its solidarity with Lula and its repudiation of protests of a coup nature, but rather tried to incorporate the Brazilian crisis into the “crack” agenda. Argentina.
It was so that the chancellor santiago cafiero established an explicit connection between the former president Jair Bolsonaro -suspected of being behind the incidents in Brasilia-, the former US president Donald Trump and Mauricio Macri.
Of course, the opposition is not willing to provide the plan to the front of alland that is why he focused on criticize the presence of Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro at the meeting of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) which takes place this Tuesday in Buenos Aires.
In other words, the opposition is fighting to install the image that Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Kirchner not as hosts for Lula, who today garners worldwide sympathy, but for Maduro, accused of serious human rights violations.
This explains why in the last few hours there has been an exchange of accusations and political Chicanos regarding whether the Celac meeting is, in reality, a diplomatic excuse for the validation of questioned regimensLike the ones of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. This opposition offensive included the publication of a statement condemning the presence of Maduro and even the insinuation, by Patricia Bullrichthat the Venezuelan president should be stopped upon arrival in the country.
After the coup attempt on January 8 in Brasilia, the political expectation of the Celac summit changed
The Government’s response was to highlight that Celac is a plural regional space that includes 33 countries of diverse ideologies and political systems and that the fact to be highlighted is the return of Brazilafter the departure decided by Bolsonaro, uncomfortable with the ideological line of the forum.
That is why no one is more interested than the Argentine Government in give Lula the leading role in the event: your challenge is that the Celac meeting be seen as the realignment of Brazil with regional “progressivism” and, above all, that the meeting be associated with the defense of democratic institutions that are under attack in Brazil.
In short, the commitment to Lula is much more than a diplomatic decision: it represents a revitalization of the official “story” and a psychic injection for the Peronist militancy.
Winks for the “lawfare”
The struggle in the field of political communication has become clear in the last few hours: some will fight to associate Celac with Lula while the others will highlight the figure of Maduro. And both will argue that the political discussion that will end with the October elections is whether Argentina will align itself with democracy or with authoritarianism.
Seen from the point of view of the Argentine government, it will be the opportunity to revitalize the discourse of resistance of the progressive forces against “hate speech” and to a neo-coup movement that uses “lawfare”. In other words, in every gesture towards Lula and in every word of repudiation of the violent protest in Brazil, there will be a tacit allusion to situations that are being experienced in Argentina, such as the conflict with the Judiciary and the procedural situation of Cristina Kirchner.
In this battle to win public opinion, Alberto Fernández has an advantage: Lula will be the first of all the presidents to arrive in the country, since he will have a bilateral meeting on Monday before the Celac summit. That will allow the Argentine president to put Maduro’s awkward presence on the back burner and set the tone for the regional meeting as a stage in which Lula receives support at a hypersensitive moment in Brazilian democracy.
Lula, after the floral offering before the monument to San Martín, will visit the President in the Pink House to deal with the bilateral agenda. And, according to what has been revealed, it is also likely that he will hold a meeting with Cristina Kirchner.
For Cristina Kirchner, Lula’s visit is the opportunity to reinstate the support of regional leaders in their crusade against “lawfare” on the national agenda
Far from being a formal meeting, for Kirchnerism it is an event of fundamental political importance: it would symbolize Lula’s explicit support after Cristina’s judicial conviction.
Already on that occasion, the Brazilian had publicly declared his solidarity with the former Argentine president and his repudiation of the practice of “lawfare.” But Cristina’s aspiration, which was the staging of regional support through a special meeting of the Puebla group, had to be suspended twice. The “timing” chosen had not been adequate, right in the middle of the World Cup euphoria, and Cristina was left without the massive demonstration she had been waiting for.
Now, then, with Lula as the protagonist and the Celac summit as the background, the vice president hopes to have her revenge to give a demonstration of regional support in her conflict with the judiciary.
Can Brazil help with dollars?
But if the government has made something clear, it is that its expectations regarding Lula’s visit do not end with reciprocal gestures of sympathy and solidarity: there is also an ambition to advance on sensitive issues on the Argentine economic agenda. The official agenda provides for a series of announcements of agreements in various areas, including energy and finance.
For the time being, Argentina will take advantage of the occasion to recall the persistence of a strong trade deficit in the bilateral balancewhich in 2022 closed in US$3,365 million. The ambassador in Brasilia, Daniel Sciolihighlighted that, in the period 2020-2022, the exchange with Brazil reached the record of a decade, with a volume of US$28,500 million, “despite the political and ideological differences.”
Scioli hinted that if those numbers were achieved with Bolsonaro, now with Lula in power the potential is greater. “Lula has a strong commitment to Mercosur, and a privileged relationship with Argentina, and he instructed his ministers to facilitate all of this,” affirmed the ambassador, who highlighted the speed with which he was received by the new chancellor, Mauro Vieiraand for him economy minister, Fernando Haddad.
An increase in exports to Brazil would help offset the expected cut in agricultural sales – an amount that is officially projected at US$3,000 million, but that institutions linked to the field forecast at four times that figure.
In short, what the government expects of Lula in the short term is that help you earn dollars in a difficult year both commercially and politically.
Lula confirmed his intention to help finance the gas pipeline that transports gas from Vaca Muerta
And Brazil can not only contribute these currencies through the commercial channel. There is also a bet that he will do so through investments, something to which Lula himself already alluded when announcing in his inauguration speech that he will give a boost to the National Development Bank (BNDES). The Government hopes that progress will be made, through this body, in the financing of a section of the Kirchner gas pipeline.
The progress in this negotiation already has a figure: Brazil would be willing to a contribution of US$700 million to finance the infrastructure work to which the Argentine Government assigns a fundamental strategic importance, since it would allow it to go from being an importer to an exporter of gas.
Waiting for the debut of the “South” coin
And, the great bet of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, the other aspiration is that of putting the common currency into practice. The minister’s idea is to achieve a long-cherished ambition: sustain an intense Bilateral exchange without the need to use dollars.
The common currency would allow the application of the compensation system between the central banks of both countries, so that binational trade can be done with local currencies. Massa did not finish explaining how the exchange rate at which the Argentine peso would be converted with the “South” coin. That is, if Brazil would accept the official listing of the BCRA or if it will be governed by the parity of the parallel market.
In any case, for Massa it would already mean significant relief that a part of the imports made from Brazil could do without foreign currency: with US$16.030 millionthe neighboring country was the second in the ranking -behind China- among the countries of origin of imports.
Massa, in a recent interview, mentioned Brazil as a strategic growth factor for the local economy. And he mentioned his desire to intensify Brazilian investment in Argentina: “After the famous Lava Jatothere was a whole process in which Brazilian companies stopped expanding”said Massa, who believes that the 40% drop in trade between the two countries can be recovered.
