Throughout this week, various indicators related to the Mexican economy have been published, the vast majority of them by INEGI. These indicators show signs of notable improvement in economic conditions, I describe them briefly. To start with very good news, the Mexican Institute of Social Security published updated data for the month of March 2023 regarding the number of workers affiliated with this institution, the global figure for the Mexican economy is 21,796,280 workers; a figure that is around a million higher than the pre-pandemic level, since in November 2019 the figure stood at 20,803,652 workers.
The foregoing is consistent with the unemployment rate of the Economically Active Population of INEGI, updated to March of this year, which is 2.8%. Registering a higher level of employment necessarily implies that the level of economic activities is growing, and the indicator that verifies this phenomenon is the growth of the Gross Domestic Product, according to INEGI the growth of the economy is 3.8% compared to the same month of last year; for its part, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity shows growth of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023. This average growth is well above the expectations of most international organizations and even the federal government.
There are three elements that, in my opinion, are generating greater dynamism in economic activities: first, the increase of 12% annual average in 2022 and 20% in the first quarter of 2023 that has been registered in investment of capital goods; secondly, the constant growth of private consumption at a rate of 4.5% at an annual rate; and third, a noticeable drop in inflation that is currently at levels of 6.85% as of March 2023 measured at an annual rate, which in turn helps the dynamism of private consumption.
It is extremely important that this takeoff be maintained in order to continue with the economic recovery, there is a great threat that it will slow down due to the turbulence that international markets present, especially the North American one. The economic conditions in the United States show signs that a financial crisis is brewing due to the banking, mortgage and real estate problems generated by the continuous increase in interest rates. The only way to prevent the Mexican economy from ceasing to grow is by maintaining the flow of resources towards productive investment which, as we know, causes greater production, therefore, greater employment, thus increasing income, encouraging consumption in consequence; what the final promotes a higher rate of economic activities.
*The author is Secretary of Research at the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences of the Universidad Panamericana.
