The National Rally “clearly on the rise” following the episode on the pension reform despite its “low involvement” in the sequence, according to a study by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation published on Tuesday April 4.
“The rise of the National Rally is (…) spectacular during this sequence of retreats, with voting intentions increasing by 7 points, if new legislative elections were to take place”details the think tank.
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The Jean-Jaurès Foundation bases part of its analysis on an Ifop survey for the “JDD” carried out online on March 20 and 21 with a representative sample of 1,094 people according to the quota method, with a margin of error from 1.4 to 3.1 points.
“Serious and anti-system”
26% of voters would opt for the far-right party in the event of legislative news, while it had achieved a score of 19% in the June 2022 elections. In this same forecast scenario, the left-wing Nupes coalition stabilizes at 26 % (his score in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections), while the Renaissance majority drops to 22% (-4 points).
“The RN benefits from the sequence of retirements because it is both perceived as serious and anti-system in public opinion, and has displayed an attitude of compromise when LFI has been seen as too radical”assures AFP Antoine Bristielle, social science researcher and author of the study.
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The party chaired by Jordan Bardella continues to progress among employees (+10 points) and among workers (+5 points), but its score also increases among categories “less learned” such as craftsmen, traders and business leaders (+15 points) and in intermediate professions (+12 points).
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“While the RN is unquestionably becoming the party of the popular and working classes, it is considerably increasing its scores in other key sectors of the electorate, to the point of looking more and more like a party of government”says the study.
A news “electoral dynamics engages” following the crisis linked to the pension reform, observes Antoine Bristielle. The latter draws a parallel with the crisis of “yellow vests” from the end of 2018 which had prefigured the rise of the RN during the European spring 2019.
The presidential party, for its part, sees its electoral bloc crumble (craftsmen, intermediate professions), retaining only two major bases: executives and retirees (at 33% of voting intentions for the majority each).
