Ukraine is preparing for a potentially decisive counter-offensive to liberate the territories occupied by Russia. The longer Kiev waits, the better his chances seem.
A highway in Poland near the border with Ukraine. A convoy of a dozen olive-green army trucks drives in from Ukraine on an April morning. Your low-loaders are empty. “I saw her a week ago. They brought tanks to Ukraine,” says the taxi driver. “They were very large tanks.”
Ukraine will need each of these tanks in the coming weeks and months. The Ukrainian army is just finishing preparations for a much-anticipated counter-offensive that was announced months ago. It should bring a turning point in the previous grueling trench warfare. And it is supposed to expel Russia from the occupied territories. It could be a decisive battle. A liberation.
Fight for Bachmut to buy time
Anyone traveling to Kiev these days will experience the literal calm before the storm. Russian rocket attacks like the one on Friday, April 28, had recently become rare. Trees and flowers bloom on the well-groomed streets of the capital, cafes are full, the war seems far away. And yet you are reminded of it again and again. On every corner there are posters calling for people to volunteer or donate to the army. On the Maidan, the Independence Square, coffins with prominent fallen fighters are set up almost every day.
A particularly large number die near Bachmut. The city in the Donetsk region has been fiercely contested for months and is now largely under Russian control. But the Ukrainian army is not giving up. The state and army leaders explain this with the protection of other nearby cities. But Kiev not only wants to tie up Russian forces at Bakhmut, but also wants to gain time to prepare for the counteroffensive. The Ukrainian army therefore conserved its reserves for a long time and accepted very high losses. Exact numbers are unknown.
Andriy and Maxym (names changed by the editors) also fought at Bachmut. Currently they are back in Kiev – finally time to rest. “I very much hope that it was worth it,” says Andrij about the decision to keep Bachmut. He himself doesn’t seem to be sure. Maxym tells about the numerical superiority of Russian forces, poor preparation and weak equipment of his unit. What do the two expect from the counter-offensive? “Finally liberated areas again,” says Maxym.
That’s why Kyiv is waiting
The counter-offensive is a constant topic in the Ukrainian media, but the army representatives remain silent. All inquiries are answered: “Wait and see.” There are many reasons for this. For example, not all the expected Western weapons have arrived. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has received a lot of “heavy metal”, as it is colloquially called, from NATO partners, much of it for the first time: dozens of modern battle tanks and armored personnel carriers from German and British production, US Patriot air defense systems, Soviet fighter jets.
According to estimates by the online newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda, the army and national guard have set up at least 16 new brigades for the offensive, totaling up to 50,000 men. These new units need time to prepare, including to become familiar with new weapons. An additional challenge is the coordinated deployment of many associations, a major offensive. So far, Ukraine has had little experience with this. Possible scenarios were run through on computers, according to Kiev experts.
The weather conditions are still unfavourable. Rain has made many country roads impassable for heavy warfare equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian soldiers have to wait until thicker foliage has grown on the trees in order to better camouflage themselves. It will take a few more days until it is sufficiently dry and green.
Crimea as a strategic thrust
Where, when and how Ukraine will strike is one of the best kept secrets right now. It should be asked at least two thrusts. This is how the army acted in the autumn of 2022 near Kharkiv and Cherson – with success.
In September 2022, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Valery Saluschnyj, only sketched out what such a Ukrainian counter-offensive could look like in his only programmatic article to date. He spoke of “a few consistent, ideally simultaneous counter-attacks”. Zalushny mentioned the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, as a strategically important target. That is the main direction in which Ukraine is likely to try to move, say everyone in Kiev. Surprises and deception maneuvers are also to be expected. However, many doubt that Ukraine could conquer the peninsula just yet. There is not enough power and technology for that.
The Zaporizhia region in southern Ukraine has long been considered the main thrust. From there, the Ukrainian armed forces want to go on to Crimea in order to cut off Russian troops from supplies over land. If that succeeds, it would be a great success for Kiev, they say. It won’t be easy, because Russia has built up several lines of defense. In addition, unlike in Kharkiv or Cherson, Russia is likely to respond with counterattacks this time, which is one of the risks of the Ukrainian offensive.
Counter-offensive is unlikely to end the war
Nevertheless, the mood in Kiev is cautiously optimistic. “This offensive cannot fail at all, more areas will be liberated,” says a military expert. “The only question is how much and at what price”. Soldier Andriy sees this price every time he looks at the contact list on his mobile phone: “Many comrades fell. I can’t manage to erase their numbers.”
There is also the question of what will happen after the counter-offensive. Some fear that if it falls far short of expectations, the West could pressure Ukraine into a negotiated settlement and painful concessions. The military leadership has clearly spoken out against it. “That won’t happen,” says Andrij. He and many in Kiev are assuming a long war that will probably not end even after the counter-offensive. He is therefore hoping for more convoys with heavy military equipment from the west.
Autor: Roman Goncharenko
