With temperatures rising around the globe, phenomena such as heat waves — when temperature peaks last several days in a row — tend to become more and more frequent. In order for humanity to prepare for this scenario, a team of British scientists identified which countries should be most affected, placing Central American nations at the top of the list.
Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and the area encompassing Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, in Central America, were the regions in the world where heat waves are expected to become stronger or more frequent. The study also pointed out the Chinese capital of Beijing and the European countries Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and Holland as especially vulnerable due to the population contingent that would be subjected to such events.
To arrive at these results, the scientists carried out simulations with the most current climate models, projected population growth over the study period and even entered socioeconomic data to complement the analysis. They describe that “often, regions are only prepared for events as extreme as the ones they have already experienced, with their planning motivated by these earlier disasters.”
The team points out that, in the current scenario, this is not enough. “Governments and authorities must prepare for events beyond current records — particularly with trends caused by climate change increasing the likelihood of extreme events,” warn the scientists in an article published in the journal Nature Communications.
Heat waves can not only raise death rates in the countries they hit, but also impact their agricultural production and increase the risk of forest fires.
On the other hand, the researchers say that there are ways to reduce the number of deaths that these climatic extremes can cause. Among the preparations that countries can adopt is, mainly, the adaptation of urban spaces to make them cooler.
“Being prepared saves lives,” concludes Dann Mitchell, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Bristol and one of the researchers.
Source: Nature Communications Via: Science Alert
