MIAMI.- Life expectancy worldwide could increase by four to five years over the next three decades, according to estimates from recent research by a group of scientists at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington.
According to the latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, published in the journal The Lancetlife expectancy will increase by almost five years for men and more than four years for women by 2050.
Likewise, the work that evaluated the disease burden scenarios and health factors in 204 countries and territories for 2022 to 2050, predicts that global life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years to 78.1 years between 2022 and 2050, which represents a growth of 45 years. However, those who reach these ages will live longer, but with deteriorated health.
Influential factors
This upward trend is largely driven by public health measures that have improved the prevention, detection and treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including heart disease, COVID-19 and a variety of health problems related to infectious diseases, childbirth and nutrition, the analysis indicates.
It was also shown that future generations will face diseases that influence life expectancy such as diabetes, cancer, and lung and heart diseases. These are expected to play a more important role than infectious diseases in people’s longevity.
On the other hand, they found that the greatest impact on life expectancy will be some pathologies and lifestyle habits that represent metabolic and dietary risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, poor diet, lack of exercise. and smoking.
The number of premature deaths and the number of years lost due to poor health caused by these factors have increased by 50% since 2000, the report notes.
Researcher Dr. Chris Murray, Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), noted that there is “an immense opportunity ahead to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these growing metabolic risk factors.”
Global healthy life expectancy (HALE), which states the average number of years a person could live in good health, will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 .
Inequality in life expectancy
The results determined that inequality in life expectancy between regions will be reduced. Researchers predict that global life expectancy will increase as people in less developed countries live longer, catching up with developed nations.
“This is an indicator that, although health disparities between the highest and lowest income settings will remain, the gaps are narrowing and the largest increases are anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa,” the experts said.
The team of scientists predicts that the most significant increases will be generated in nations where life expectancy is generally shorter, which they believe will help level out global differences.
Murray highlighted that the greatest opportunity to accelerate the reduction of the global burden of disease is through policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating metabolic and behavioral risk factors. In addition to focusing on safer environments and better childhood nutrition and vaccination.
They conclude that the predicted effects are greater in the “Improvement of behavioral and metabolic risks” scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in the disease burden in 2050.
@Lydr05
Source: With information from The Lancet magazine, EuropaPress and Health Day
