From November 2021 to November 2022, food prices increased by 12.7 per cent, according to Statistics Norway.
Food prices are usually adjusted twice a year.
On Wednesday 1 February, food prices will be adjusted for the first time in 2023. Food can be up to 10 per cent more expensive.
Will keep an extra eye on this
One thing will be particularly exciting to follow, says Ivar Pettersen in Alo’s analysis.
– It will be exciting to see the prices of imported goods compared to Norwegian-produced goods, says Pettersen.
Against the background of falling energy prices and stable prices for food raw materials in the EU, he believes there is reason to believe that this will have a dampened effect on imported goods.
– We may come to see that imports contribute to subdued price growth, while it has been the opposite in parts of 2022.
EXCITING: Former Nibio researcher, a research institute which, among other things, analyzes food prices, Ivar Pettersen, says imports can contribute to less price growth. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
These foods will increase more
– Which foods will increase in price the most?
– It is very difficult to say where the results will be greatest. There are many factors that influence this, and most parts of the food sector are, for example, large consumers of energy, says Pettersen.
However, he believes that the price increase will have less impact on so-called signal goods – goods that receive a lot of attention in food exchanges and price indices.
– An example of that is butter, which has been out of VG’s food exchange for periods. On the other hand, the price increase can have a greater impact on goods that the consumer is less aware of.
– A strategic move from the chains?
– It is in the merchant’s profession to see where the customers have their guard down, says Pettersen.
May have set the bar too high
He says that the contracts for this price adjustment have been negotiated with the supplier costs that applied in autumn 2022.
– Now the picture is changing dramatically. For example, we have completely different energy prices now.
Therefore, he believes that they may have set the list at a “too high” level.
– Why can’t new contracts be negotiated with a fresher picture of the costs?
– The negotiations are complicated. Say that Norgesgruppen negotiates with a hundred suppliers not only about price, but also about which goods will go in and out, and how they will run campaigns.
Pettersen therefore believes that there is a great need for the negotiations to become more flexible.
– A lack of flexibility runs the risk of empty shelves and plowing down of fresh vegetables in one period, while consumers miss out on downward price adjustments in others. More flexibility should be both possible and beneficial for the value chain.
INCREASE: The negotiations were done with the price base for autumn 2022, says Ivar Pettersen in the Alo analysis. Photo: Morten Leander Kristoffersen / TV 2
– Now it will be violent
Bendik Solum Whist, branch director for groceries in Virke, says that the costs for the producers are predicted to rise, which means that shop prices will make a jump.
– Now it’s going to be violent, since there is half a year of increased prices behind us, which are often priced into this price window.
He will not predict which food items will increase in price the most, but:
– I can look at the numbers we have going back in time. Imported goods in particular have become more expensive. Coffee is up 30 per cent, as is imported grain, says Whist
Strategy advisor and grocery expert Erik Fagerlid says that it will be even more expensive than the high level we are used to.
– The prices from the supplier to the chains are going up because of a lot of misery out there with increased raw material costs, transport costs and energy costs.
Whist and Fagerlid believe, in contrast to Pettersen in the Alo analysis, that the imported goods will stand out with a clear rise after 1 February.
– With which manufacturers will it rise the most?
– Where the import share is high, says Fagerlid.
Speaking advice
Fagerlid says the advice to consumers is misleading.
– The advice ranges from hoarding to not hoarding, hoarding has something to do with food waste. I would therefore not recommend it.
He therefore resorts to the “good old” advice:
– Check the kilo and liter price. Be price conscious, it’s never wrong.
