Five of the six states crucial for the 2024 electoral contest lean towards the former president Donald Trump in voting intention, according to a recent survey carried out by the New York Times and Siena College.
With just one year left until the elections, the president’s popularity Joe Biden is beginning to crack while the Republican’s seems immune to the judicial processes and scandals that surround him, which raises questions about the future of politics in the country.
The news of Trump’s leadership in key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania (with margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters) has created a stir in the American political landscape. Biden only maintains a two percentage point lead in Wisconsin.
According to the aforementioned media, one of the most notable factors in this survey is the growing dissatisfaction of voters with Biden’s handling of issues such as the economy and other issues.
Voters expressed that Biden’s policies have harmed them personally, suggesting a loss of confidence in his leadership. In addition, there is a deterioration in the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that brought him to the White House in 2020, with demographic groups that previously strongly supported him showing a lower preference for him.
For example, voters under 30 show just one percentage point preference for Biden, and his lead among Hispanic voters has shrunk to single digits. Furthermore, in urban areas, his lead is half that of Trump in rural regions, and men prefer Trump by twice the margin of women, reversing the gender advantage that had boosted Democrats in the last years.
One of the most surprising data from the survey is that black voters, a traditionally Democratic group, are showing 22 percent support for Trump in these states, a level unprecedented in modern presidential politics. These results suggest a gradual realignment in American politics regarding partisan preferences.
When it comes to specific states, Trump leads by significant margins in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which could give him a sizable lead in the Electoral College if these numbers hold in the 2024 elections.
Another worrying aspect for Democrats is that voters at all income levels feel that Biden’s policies have hurt them personally, while they credit Trump’s policies for helping them. The difference is overwhelming, as Trump has a 17-point advantage in this regard, while Biden has an 18-point disadvantage.
One of the most notable challenges for Biden is his age. About to turn 81, 71 percent of respondents believe he is “too old” to be an effective president, a view shared by a majority of demographic and geographic groups, including 54 percent of Trump’s own supporters. Biden. This aspect highlights the importance of age and mental acuity in the public perception of a leader.
On the economy, Trump leads Biden by a significant margin, with 59 percent of voters expressing more confidence in Trump in this area. This gap is the widest compared to other topics and spans across various demographic groups, genders, education levels, and incomes.
The poll also finds that economic issues are of great importance to voters, and the majority of those who consider this their top concern favor Trump by an overwhelming margin of 60 percent to 32 percent.
Despite these challenges, Biden still has a year to turn things around, and his well-funded campaign will seek to shore up his demographic weaknesses. The president’s advisers recall Democrats’ success in the 2022 election, despite Biden’s low approval ratings at the time.
