The intention of takeover of Activision-Blizzard by Microsoft has experienced a new twist. Just yesterday, the British authorities (CMA) opposed the takeover in their provisional verdict. His main fears being that this merger will “make Microsoft even stronger in the field of cloud games, stifle competition in this growing market and harm British gamers who cannot afford expensive consoles”. If at first glance it seems bad start for Microsoft, analysts suggest that it leads on the contrary to believe that the deal will be validated, and they even advance a date.
A well-crafted strategy
Indeed, according to Nick McKay and a certain Michael Pachter, analysts for Wedrush, this decision suggests that the merger is about to be approved. As can be read in the columns of
gamesindustry.bizthis provisional verdict would simply be used to obtain concessions from Microsoft on several subjects, including the exploitation of the Call of Duty license.
We read today’s statement as a signal that the UK knows it has a losing legal case. In our view, the FTC realized this late last year and rushed to file a lawsuit to block the merger in hopes of being the first to wrest concessions from Microsoft. We believe the CMA came to the same conclusion during its review and expedited its formal objection to the transaction and proposed remedies in order to get ahead of the FTC and gain bragging rights.
The FTC has yet to offer remedies, and the CMA, by listing onerous structural remedies, has positioned itself to be the “dragonslayer” in this action.
No concession on the cloud?
If Microsoft has already committed to offering effective and easy-to-implement solutions to address the CMA’s concerns, in particular by letting Sony enjoy Call of Duty games for several years, it would be against the fact that the license can be found on competitive cloud gaming services.
This would apply to Call of Duty, but also potentially to other Activision games.
We know that mobile is very important to Microsoft, so it wouldn’t be so surprising if the cloud gaming market and its millions of potential new players were of more interest to the firm than to consoles.
The deal would be validated in mid-May
The analysts conclude that if the various issues mentioned above can be subjects of friction, they should not take too much time for the various parties to find an agreement, and that the takeover should be validated “by mid-May at the latest. » :
We expect Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision to be finalized no later than mid-May.
As always, we must take these statements with a grain of salt, and wait for official communications before rejoicing.
There is still a long way to go before the various bodies give their verdict. If you missed the key points of the case, you will find below our recap video to understand everything about the issues surrounding the takeover of Activision-Blizzard by Microsoft, as well as our complete file on this subject.
