The first phase of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory began weeks ago. Other than stating that its troops are advancing, kyiv has not offered many details on how it is doing.
The fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, largely out of sight of impartial observers, pits troops equipped with new Western-supplied weapons against Kremlin forces that have spent months digging out formidable defenses and perfecting tactics.
Here’s a look at what’s happening after more than 16 months of war:
What are Ukraine’s tactics?
Fighting has intensified at multiple points along the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line. Ukrainian forces are advancing steadily on the northern and southern flanks of the destroyed city of Bakhmut, which Russian forces have occupied since May.
Battles are also taking place along the southern front in Zaporizhia, where Ukrainian forces are making minimal gains and facing Russian fortifications.
Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, recently claimed that Kiev forces had destroyed six Russian munitions stocks within 24 hours, a comment that hinted at Ukrainian tactics.
“We inflict effective, painful and precise blows, and we bleed the occupant, for whom a lack of ammunition and fuel will sooner or later prove fatal,” he said.
Britain’s top military officer says that is Ukraine’s first goal: to deprive Russian units of supplies and reinforcements by attacking logistics and command centers in the rear, including with UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. Ukraine is also trying to stretch Russia’s resources by attacking simultaneously at various points along the battlefront, Admiral Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of the Defense Staff, explained earlier this month.
Ukraine’s full-scale offensive will come, he said, when one point on the front succumbs. kyiv’s reserve troops can break through the gap.
“I would describe it as a policy of deprive, extend and attack,” Radakin told a British parliamentary committee.
He stressed that Ukraine lacks vital air cover for his attacks. kyiv has been promised F-16 fighter jets by its Western allies, but they are not expected to arrive on the battlefield until next year. Ukraine is also asking for long-range weapons and more ammunition.
The United States sent cluster bombs to Ukraine this week to help bolster its offensive. US President Joe Biden said he hoped the controversial bombs would provide a temporary solution to help stop Russian tanks because “the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition.”
What are Russia’s tactics?
Kremlin forces are using a large number of anti-tank mines to stop Ukrainian armored counteroffensive operations in the south of the country. That puts the Ukrainian attackers at the mercy of Russian drones, helicopters and artillery.
Even when behind many kilometers (miles) of trenches, anti-tank ditches and other obstacles, reportedly up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) deep in some places, Russian forces face many difficulties.
Battlefield wear and tear has reduced Moscow’s military weight. The war has also exposed incompetence and lack of initiative in the Russian ranks, as well as poor coordination.
Radakin, Britain’s commander-in-chief, said Russia has lost about half its fighting force since its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Also, Russian factories cannot supply enough munitions to replace those lost in the field. of battle, he stressed.
For example, Russia has used about 10 million shells in Ukraine, while producing only 1 million new shells, according to Radakin. Similarly, it has lost more than 2,000 tanks but made just 200 replacements, he said.
According to reports, the Russians are conducting offensive operations and making minimal gains in the forested area of northern Kreminna.
Whats Next?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will be “very long” and “very bloody,” US Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently said.
The Ukrainian soldiers maintain that the weight of the Russian bombardment on their positions has been surprising and is holding back the advance of kyiv.
In the open fields of Zaporizhia in particular, where finding cover is difficult, commanders expose fewer soldiers to limit the number of casualties from heavy artillery.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged last week that the counter-offensive “is not advancing fast.”
It started later than many expected, apparently when kyiv was expecting the delivery of Western weapons and the arrival of Western-trained soldiers. That delay caused the operation to start in the summer instead of the spring.
Military planners should keep in mind that the Ukrainian winter brings muddy conditions that bog down armored vehicles and troops. The famous mud season even has its own name – “rasputitsa”.
Once the weather deteriorates, the warring sides will have to take stock and prepare for what could be another round of grueling fighting this coming winter.
Western analysts believe that the counteroffensive, even if successful, will not be the end of the war. But it could be a decisive episode to strengthen kyiv before any negotiation. Ukraine also wants to show the West that sending aid has paid off.
